MLB
Best Prop Edges
Player props ranked by expected value — our model's win probability against the best available price across regulated books, grouped by the day each player's team plays. Analysis, not advice: where the price and our number disagree most.
Today · Fri, Jun 560 edges
| Player | Time (ET) | Prop | Pick | Best odds | Book | Win% | Proj | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam AntonacciCWS | 6:40 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | -145 | BetMGM | 68% | 1.5 vs 0.5 | +14.2% |
| Carter JensenKC | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +165 | BetMGM | 43% | 0.71 vs 0.5 | +12.7% |
| Taylor TrammellHOU | 8:10 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | -102 | DraftKings | 57% | 1.03 vs 0.5 | +12.3% |
| P.J. HigginsCIN | 8:15 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | +100 | BetMGM | 56% | 1.02 vs 0.5 | +12.3% |
| Lane ThomasKC | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +155 | BetMGM | 44% | 0.71 vs 0.5 | +12.2% |
| Victor Mesa Jr.TB | 7:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +128 | DraftKings | 49% | 0.59 vs 0.5 | +12.1% |
| Matt VierlingDET | 6:40 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +162 | DraftKings | 43% | 0.71 vs 0.5 | +11.9% |
| Andrew McCutchenTEX | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +120 | DraftKings | 51% | 0.55 vs 0.5 | +11.7% |
| Wenceel PérezDET | 6:40 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +130 | BetMGM | 48% | 0.6 vs 0.5 | +11.3% |
| Vinnie PasquantinoKC | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +184 | DraftKings | 39% | 0.81 vs 0.5 | +11% |
| Kyle StowersMIA | 7:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +179 | DraftKings | 40% | 0.79 vs 0.5 | +10.9% |
| Salvador PerezKC | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +183 | DraftKings | 39% | 0.81 vs 0.5 | +10.8% |
| Austin RileyATL | 7:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +144 | DraftKings | 45% | 0.67 vs 0.5 | +10.7% |
| Patrick WisdomSEA | 6:40 PM | Total Bases | Over 0.5 | +105 | BetMGM | 54% | 1.39 vs 0.5 | +10.6% |
| Jonah HeimATH | 8:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +141 | DraftKings | 46% | 0.65 vs 0.5 | +10.5% |
| Jake McCarthyCOL | 8:40 PM | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | +155 | BetRivers | 43% | 2.16 vs 1.5 | +10.5% |
| Jeremy PeñaHOU | 8:10 PM | Hits | Over 1.5 | +205 | BetRivers | 36% | 1.41 vs 1.5 | +10.4% |
| Tristan PetersCWS | 6:40 PM | Total Bases | Over 0.5 | -120 | BetMGM | 60% | 1.82 vs 0.5 | +10.2% |
| Isaac CollinsKC | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +140 | DraftKings | 46% | 0.66 vs 0.5 | +10.1% |
| Jeff McNeilATH | 8:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +151 | DraftKings | 44% | 0.72 vs 0.5 | +10.1% |
| Troy JohnstonCOL | 8:40 PM | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | +175 | BetRivers | 40% | 1.85 vs 1.5 | +9.8% |
| Brett SullivanCOL | 8:40 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +156 | DraftKings | 43% | 0.75 vs 0.5 | +9.8% |
| Taylor TrammellHOU | 8:10 PM | Total Bases | Over 0.5 | +100 | Fanatics | 55% | 1.36 vs 0.5 | +9.8% |
| Kazuma OkamotoTOR | 7:07 PM | Total Bases | Over 0.5 | -125 | BetMGM | 61% | 1.82 vs 0.5 | +9.6% |
| Jakob MarseeMIA | 7:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +164 | DraftKings | 41% | 0.76 vs 0.5 | +9.6% |
| Danny JansenTEX | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | -104 | DraftKings | 56% | 0.46 vs 0.5 | +9.3% |
| Brent RookerATH | 8:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +164 | DraftKings | 41% | 0.75 vs 0.5 | +9.2% |
| Dansby SwansonCHC | 2:20 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +115 | DraftKings | 51% | 0.56 vs 0.5 | +9.1% |
| Geraldo PerdomoAZ | 9:40 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +183 | DraftKings | 38% | 0.87 vs 0.5 | +8.9% |
| TJ RumfieldCOL | 8:40 PM | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | +155 | BetRivers | 43% | 2.05 vs 1.5 | +8.8% |
| Hunter GoodmanCOL | 8:40 PM | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | +135 | BetRivers | 46% | 2.34 vs 1.5 | +8.8% |
| Austin MartinMIN | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +162 | DraftKings | 41% | 0.78 vs 0.5 | +8.6% |
| Nick AllenHOU | 8:10 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | -110 | BetMGM | 57% | 1.02 vs 0.5 | +8.3% |
| Kody ClemensMIN | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +176 | DraftKings | 39% | 0.84 vs 0.5 | +8.2% |
| Michael HelmanTEX | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +111 | DraftKings | 51% | 0.58 vs 0.5 | +8.1% |
| Dominic CanzoneSEA | 6:40 PM | Total Bases | Over 0.5 | -125 | BetMGM | 60% | 1.73 vs 0.5 | +8% |
| Spencer HorwitzPIT | 7:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +170 | BetMGM | 40% | 0.8 vs 0.5 | +8% |
| Henry BolteATH | 8:10 PM | Total Bases | Under 1.5 | -140 | DraftKings | 63% | 1.26 vs 1.5 | +7.7% |
| Mookie BettsLAD | 10:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +189 | DraftKings | 37% | 0.88 vs 0.5 | +7.7% |
| Ozzie AlbiesATL | 7:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +196 | DraftKings | 36% | 0.93 vs 0.5 | +7.6% |
| Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL | 7:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +182 | DraftKings | 38% | 0.85 vs 0.5 | +7.6% |
| Sandy LeónATL | 7:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | -160 | BetMGM | 66% | 0.32 vs 0.5 | +7.6% |
| Gabriel MorenoAZ | 9:40 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +196 | DraftKings | 36% | 0.92 vs 0.5 | +7.5% |
| Endy RodríguezPIT | 7:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +117 | DraftKings | 49% | 0.59 vs 0.5 | +7.3% |
| Wade MecklerLAA | 10:10 PM | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | +170 | BetRivers | 40% | 1.77 vs 1.5 | +7.3% |
| Jahmai JonesDET | 6:40 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | -102 | DraftKings | 54% | 0.5 vs 0.5 | +7.2% |
| José CaballeroNYY | 7:05 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | -114 | DraftKings | 57% | 0.99 vs 0.5 | +6.8% |
| Alika WilliamsATH | 8:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +100 | DraftKings | 53% | 0.51 vs 0.5 | +6.8% |
| Victor CaratiniMIN | 8:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +135 | BetMGM | 45% | 0.68 vs 0.5 | +6.8% |
| Luke RaleySEA | 6:40 PM | Total Bases | Over 0.5 | -127 | Caesars | 60% | 1.69 vs 0.5 | +6.7% |
| Tyler FreemanCOL | 8:40 PM | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | +160 | BetRivers | 41% | 1.88 vs 1.5 | +6.6% |
| George SpringerTOR | 7:07 PM | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | +163 | BetRivers | 41% | 1.84 vs 1.5 | +6.5% |
| Bo BichetteNYM | 9:40 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +165 | BetMGM | 40% | 0.8 vs 0.5 | +6.5% |
| Max MuncyATH | 8:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +144 | DraftKings | 44% | 0.75 vs 0.5 | +6.4% |
| Brandon MarshPHI | 6:40 PM | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | +140 | BetRivers | 44% | 2.07 vs 1.5 | +6.3% |
| Dominic CanzoneSEA | 6:40 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | -125 | BetMGM | 59% | 0.99 vs 0.5 | +6.3% |
| Brooks LeeMIN | 8:15 PM | Total Bases | Under 1.5 | -145 | DraftKings | 63% | 1.25 vs 1.5 | +6.2% |
| Carson WilliamsTB | 7:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | -130 | DraftKings | 60% | 0.41 vs 0.5 | +6.2% |
| Bobby Witt Jr.KC | 8:15 PM | Total Bases | Under 1.5 | +102 | DraftKings | 53% | 1.74 vs 1.5 | +6.2% |
| Myles StrawTOR | 7:07 PM | Total Bases | Over 0.5 | -105 | Fanatics | 54% | 1.31 vs 0.5 | +6% |
Grouped by the day each player’s team plays; game times are US Eastern. We only list bets clearing a +3% expected-value bar; our backtest showed thinner edges are roughly break-even. Win% is our projection turned into a probability; EV compares it to the best price across regulated US sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, and other licensed books). Positive EV means the price beats our estimate of fair. Odds move fast and books differ — always confirm the number before betting. Informational only, not betting advice — see methodology, expected value, and responsible gambling.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.