EdgeTake

3B · ATL

Austin Riley — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
92
Total Bases
111
Per Game
1.21
Projection
1.17
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Austin Riley (ATL) sits at 1.21 total bases per game through 92 games, and the last 10 hold near that at 1.1. 33% of those games have finished over 1.5. Our model projects 1.17, below the market line of 1.25.

Next matchup

Next: vs SD — their staff ranks 13 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Griffin Canning (RHP)

vs LHP
.218
.612 OPS · 1 HR · 136 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.215
.669 OPS · 11 HR · 274 PA

Career vs Griffin Canning: 1-for-5 (.200 AVG) over 5 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books

Under 1.5 -176 at Caesars — model 66% to hit, +3.6% EV.

Over 1.5 +145 DraftKingsUnder 1.5 -176 Caesars

At a line of 1.5 (betrivers), Austin Riley went over in 30 of 92 2026 games.

Our projection 1.17 vs market line 1.25 — edge -0.08.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.546/9250%
1.530/9233%
2.517/9218%
3.58/929%

Share of 2026 games Riley finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
1.10
Season avg
1.21

Over 1.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (45)
1.29
Away (47)
1.13
Home edge
+0.16

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-03-27vs KC3Over
2026-03-28vs KC1Under
2026-03-29vs KC0Under
2026-03-30vs ATH0Under
2026-03-31vs ATH0Under
2026-04-01vs ATH1Under
2026-04-03vs AZ2Over
2026-04-04vs AZ0Under
2026-04-04vs AZ0Under
2026-04-05vs AZ0Under
2026-04-07vs LAA0Under
2026-04-08vs LAA2Over
2026-04-08vs LAA2Over
2026-04-10vs CLE2Over
2026-04-11vs CLE0Under
2026-04-12vs CLE3Over
2026-04-13vs MIA1Under
2026-04-14vs MIA0Under
2026-04-15vs MIA6Over
2026-04-17vs PHI8Over
2026-04-18vs PHI2Over
2026-04-19vs PHI1Under
2026-04-20vs WSH0Under
2026-04-21vs WSH0Under
2026-04-22vs WSH0Under
2026-04-23vs WSH2Over
2026-04-24vs PHI0Under
2026-04-25vs PHI2Over
2026-04-26vs PHI0Under
2026-04-28vs DET0Under
2026-04-29vs DET0Under
2026-04-30vs DET0Under
2026-05-02vs COL2Over
2026-05-03vs COL4Over
2026-05-03vs COL1Under
2026-05-05vs SEA5Over
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-09vs LAD3Over
2026-05-10vs LAD1Under
2026-05-10vs LAD1Under
2026-05-12vs CHC5Over
2026-05-13vs CHC0Under
2026-05-14vs CHC1Under
2026-05-15vs BOS1Under
2026-05-16vs BOS0Under
2026-05-17vs BOS6Over
2026-05-18vs MIA0Under
2026-05-19vs MIA0Under
2026-05-20vs MIA4Over
2026-05-21vs MIA0Under
2026-05-22vs WSH3Over
2026-05-23vs WSH0Under
2026-05-24vs WSH2Over
2026-05-26vs BOS3Over
2026-05-27vs BOS0Under
2026-05-28vs BOS0Under
2026-05-29vs CIN0Under
2026-05-30vs CIN0Under
2026-05-31vs CIN0Under
2026-06-02vs TOR0Under
2026-06-03vs TOR1Under
2026-06-04vs TOR0Under
2026-06-05vs PIT2Over
2026-06-06vs PIT3Over
2026-06-07vs PIT0Under
2026-06-09vs CWS1Under
2026-06-10vs CWS0Under
2026-06-12vs NYM2Over
2026-06-13vs NYM0Under
2026-06-14vs NYM0Under
2026-06-16vs SF2Over
2026-06-17vs SF3Over
2026-06-19vs MIL1Under
2026-06-20vs MIL0Under
2026-06-21vs MIL1Under
2026-06-23vs SD3Over
2026-06-24vs SD0Under
2026-06-25vs SD0Under
2026-06-27vs SF1Under
2026-06-28vs SF0Under
2026-06-28vs SF0Under
2026-06-30vs STL0Under
2026-07-01vs STL1Under
2026-07-02vs STL1Under
2026-07-03vs NYM0Under
2026-07-05vs NYM4Over
2026-07-05vs NYM2Over
2026-07-06vs NYM0Under
2026-07-07vs PIT3Over
2026-07-08vs PIT0Under
2026-07-09vs PIT0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Austin Riley’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.