EdgeTake

1B · AZ

Ildemaro Vargas — Hits

2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
76
Hits
68
Per Game
0.89
Projection
0.73
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) has averaged 0.89 hits per game across 76 games this season, with the last 10 dipping to 0.6. They've gone over 0.5 in 61% of those games. Our projection of 0.73 sits above the market line of 0.59.

Next matchup

Next: @ STL — their staff ranks 14 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

vs LHP
.337
.924 OPS · 5 HR · 103 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.228
.610 OPS · 2 HR · 215 PA

Career vs Michael McGreevy: 1-for-3 (.333 AVG) over 3 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books

Under 0.5 +132 at DraftKings — model 46% to hit, +5.6% EV.

Over 0.5 -135 BetMGMUnder 0.5 +132 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Ildemaro Vargas went over in 46 of 76 2026 games.

Our projection 0.73 vs market line 0.59 — edge +0.14.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.546/7661%
1.515/7620%
2.55/767%

Share of 2026 games Vargas finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.60
Season avg
0.89

Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (40)
0.80
Away (36)
1.00
Home edge
-0.20

Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Hits

DateOppHitsvs Line
2026-03-31vs DET2Over
2026-04-01vs DET1Over
2026-04-03vs ATL2Over
2026-04-05vs ATL1Over
2026-04-07vs NYM1Over
2026-04-08vs NYM3Over
2026-04-09vs NYM1Over
2026-04-10vs PHI1Over
2026-04-12vs PHI1Over
2026-04-13vs BAL2Over
2026-04-14vs BAL1Over
2026-04-15vs BAL2Over
2026-04-18vs TOR1Over
2026-04-19vs TOR1Over
2026-04-19vs TOR1Over
2026-04-22vs CWS1Over
2026-04-23vs CWS2Over
2026-04-23vs CWS1Over
2026-04-25vs SD1Over
2026-04-26vs SD3Over
2026-04-28vs MIL1Over
2026-04-29vs MIL2Over
2026-04-30vs MIL2Over
2026-05-01vs CHC4Over
2026-05-02vs CHC0Under
2026-05-03vs CHC1Over
2026-05-06vs PIT1Over
2026-05-07vs PIT0Under
2026-05-07vs PIT1Over
2026-05-09vs NYM1Over
2026-05-09vs NYM1Over
2026-05-10vs NYM0Under
2026-05-12vs TEX0Under
2026-05-13vs TEX2Over
2026-05-14vs TEX1Over
2026-05-16vs COL4Over
2026-05-16vs COL0Under
2026-05-17vs COL1Over
2026-05-19vs SF2Over
2026-05-20vs SF2Over
2026-05-20vs SF0Under
2026-05-22vs COL0Under
2026-05-23vs COL0Under
2026-05-24vs COL0Under
2026-05-24vs COL0Under
2026-05-25vs SF0Under
2026-05-27vs SF1Over
2026-05-27vs SF1Over
2026-05-30vs SEA0Under
2026-05-31vs SEA1Over
2026-05-31vs SEA1Over
2026-06-02vs LAD0Under
2026-06-03vs LAD1Over
2026-06-04vs LAD0Under
2026-06-05vs LAD0Under
2026-06-06vs WSH0Under
2026-06-06vs WSH0Under
2026-06-07vs WSH0Under
2026-06-10vs MIA0Under
2026-06-12vs CIN0Under
2026-06-14vs CIN0Under
2026-06-17vs LAA0Under
2026-06-17vs LAA0Under
2026-06-20vs MIN1Over
2026-06-21vs MIN1Over
2026-06-21vs MIN0Under
2026-06-22vs STL0Under
2026-06-24vs STL1Over
2026-06-26vs TB0Under
2026-06-28vs TB0Under
2026-07-04vs MIL3Over
2026-07-05vs MIL1Over
2026-07-05vs MIL0Under
2026-07-07vs SD0Under
2026-07-09vs SD1Over
2026-07-10vs SD0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Ildemaro Vargas’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.