1B · AZ
Ildemaro Vargas — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) has averaged 0.89 hits per game across 76 games this season, with the last 10 dipping to 0.6. They've gone over 0.5 in 61% of those games. Our projection of 0.73 sits above the market line of 0.59.
Next: @ STL — their staff ranks 14 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
Probable starter: Michael McGreevy (RHP)
Career vs Michael McGreevy: 1-for-3 (.333 AVG) over 3 PA.
Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.
Under 0.5 +132 at DraftKings — model 46% to hit, +5.6% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Ildemaro Vargas went over in 46 of 76 2026 games.
Our projection 0.73 vs market line 0.59 — edge +0.14.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 46/76 | 61% |
| 1.5 | 15/76 | 20% |
| 2.5 | 5/76 | 7% |
Share of 2026 games Vargas finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | vs DET | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-03 | vs ATL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-05 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs NYM | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-09 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-12 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-14 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-15 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CWS | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs SD | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs MIL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-30 | vs MIL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs CHC | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-07 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs TEX | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-14 | vs TEX | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs COL | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-04 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-05 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-06 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-06 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-07 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-10 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-12 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-14 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-17 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-17 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-20 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-21 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-21 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-22 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-24 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-26 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-28 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-04 | vs MIL | 3 | Over |
| 2026-07-05 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-07-05 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-07 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-09 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-07-10 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Ildemaro Vargas’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.