EdgeTake

DH · HOU

Yordan Alvarez — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
63
Total Bases
148
Per Game
2.35
Projection
2.32
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Over 63 games this season, Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is averaging 2.35 total bases per game, trending up to 3.5 across the last 10. They've gone over 1.5 in 48% of those games. Our model projects 2.32, a step above the market line of 1.51.

Next matchup

Next: vs ATH — their staff ranks 22 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books

Over 1.5 +105 at BetMGM — model 49% to hit, +0.9% EV.

Over 1.5 +105 BetMGMUnder 1.5 -128 DraftKings

At a line of 1.5 (bovada), Yordan Alvarez went over in 30 of 63 2026 games.

Our projection 2.32 vs market line 1.51 — edge +0.81.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.543/6368%
1.530/6348%
2.525/6340%
3.520/6332%

Share of 2026 games Alvarez finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
3.50
Season avg
2.35

Over 1.5 in 7 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (32)
2.56
Away (31)
2.13
Home edge
+0.43

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-03-26vs LAA0Under
2026-03-28vs LAA4Over
2026-03-28vs LAA3Over
2026-03-29vs LAA1Under
2026-03-31vs BOS5Over
2026-04-01vs BOS6Over
2026-04-01vs BOS3Over
2026-04-04vs ATH0Under
2026-04-04vs ATH1Under
2026-04-05vs ATH4Over
2026-04-07vs COL0Under
2026-04-08vs COL0Under
2026-04-08vs COL1Under
2026-04-11vs SEA5Over
2026-04-12vs SEA7Over
2026-04-12vs SEA0Under
2026-04-13vs SEA0Under
2026-04-15vs COL2Over
2026-04-16vs COL6Over
2026-04-17vs COL1Under
2026-04-18vs STL5Over
2026-04-18vs STL6Over
2026-04-19vs STL4Over
2026-04-20vs CLE1Under
2026-04-21vs CLE3Over
2026-04-22vs CLE6Over
2026-04-25vs NYY2Over
2026-04-25vs NYY1Under
2026-04-26vs NYY3Over
2026-04-28vs BAL1Under
2026-04-29vs BAL6Over
2026-04-30vs BAL0Under
2026-05-01vs BOS0Under
2026-05-02vs BOS0Under
2026-05-03vs BOS1Under
2026-05-05vs LAD2Over
2026-05-06vs LAD0Under
2026-05-06vs LAD0Under
2026-05-08vs CIN5Over
2026-05-09vs CIN2Over
2026-05-10vs CIN0Under
2026-05-12vs SEA1Under
2026-05-13vs SEA0Under
2026-05-14vs SEA1Under
2026-05-14vs SEA7Over
2026-05-16vs TEX1Under
2026-05-16vs TEX4Over
2026-05-17vs TEX0Under
2026-05-18vs MIN1Under
2026-05-19vs MIN0Under
2026-05-20vs MIN0Under
2026-05-22vs CHC1Under
2026-05-23vs CHC0Under
2026-05-25vs TEX4Over
2026-05-27vs TEX8Over
2026-05-28vs TEX9Over
2026-05-29vs TEX0Under
2026-05-30vs MIL0Under
2026-05-30vs MIL3Over
2026-05-31vs MIL0Under
2026-06-03vs PIT5Over
2026-06-04vs PIT4Over
2026-06-05vs PIT2Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Yordan Alvarez’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.