DH · HOU
Yordan Alvarez — Total Bases
2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 63 games this season, Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is averaging 2.35 total bases per game, trending up to 3.5 across the last 10. They've gone over 1.5 in 48% of those games. Our model projects 2.32, a step above the market line of 1.51.
Next: vs ATH — their staff ranks 22 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
Over 1.5 +105 at BetMGM — model 49% to hit, +0.9% EV.
At a line of 1.5 (bovada), Yordan Alvarez went over in 30 of 63 2026 games.
Our projection 2.32 vs market line 1.51 — edge +0.81.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 43/63 | 68% |
| 1.5 | 30/63 | 48% |
| 2.5 | 25/63 | 40% |
| 3.5 | 20/63 | 32% |
Share of 2026 games Alvarez finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 1.5 in 7 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases
| Date | Opp | Total Bases | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs LAA | 4 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs LAA | 3 | Over |
| 2026-03-29 | vs LAA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs BOS | 5 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs BOS | 6 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs BOS | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-04 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs ATH | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs ATH | 4 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs COL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs SEA | 5 | Over |
| 2026-04-12 | vs SEA | 7 | Over |
| 2026-04-12 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-13 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-16 | vs COL | 6 | Over |
| 2026-04-17 | vs COL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs STL | 5 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs STL | 6 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs STL | 4 | Over |
| 2026-04-20 | vs CLE | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs CLE | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs CLE | 6 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs NYY | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs NYY | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs NYY | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs BAL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs BAL | 6 | Over |
| 2026-04-30 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs BOS | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs CIN | 5 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs CIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs SEA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs SEA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs SEA | 7 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs TEX | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs TEX | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MIN | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs CHC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs TEX | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs TEX | 8 | Over |
| 2026-05-28 | vs TEX | 9 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs MIL | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs PIT | 5 | Over |
| 2026-06-04 | vs PIT | 4 | Over |
| 2026-06-05 | vs PIT | 2 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Yordan Alvarez’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.