1B · BOS
Willson Contreras — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Willson Contreras (BOS) has averaged 1.05 hits per game across 58 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 1.5 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 69% of games. We project 1.29, ahead of the 0.66 market line.
Next: @ NYY — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
Over 0.5 -190 at BetMGM — model 67% to hit, +2.6% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Willson Contreras went over in 40 of 58 2026 games.
Our projection 1.29 vs market line 0.66 — edge +0.63.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 40/58 | 69% |
| 1.5 | 15/58 | 26% |
| 2.5 | 5/58 | 9% |
Share of 2026 games Contreras finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 8 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-31 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-03 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-04 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-05 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs MIL | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-12 | vs STL | 4 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-20 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs NYY | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-27 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs TOR | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs HOU | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-04 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs TB | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-08 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-15 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs ATL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-18 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs KC | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs KC | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-22 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs MIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs MIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs ATL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-28 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs CLE | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs BAL | 3 | Over |
| 2026-06-04 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Willson Contreras’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.