C · MIL
William Contreras — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
William Contreras (MIL) has averaged 0.1 home runs per game across 87 games this season, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. The over on 1.5 has hit in 0% of games. Our projection of 0.12 comes in under the market line of 1.11.
Next: vs COL — their staff ranks 30 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
Probable starter: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Career vs Ryan Feltner: 3-for-19 (.158 AVG) over 19 PA.
Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.
At a line of 1.5 (betrivers), William Contreras went over in 0 of 87 2026 games.
Our projection 0.12 vs market line 1.11 — edge -0.99.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 9/87 | 10% |
Share of 2026 games Contreras finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 1.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs TB | 1 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs WSH | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-16 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs AZ | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs LAD | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-01 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-04 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-06 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-07 | vs COL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-06-07 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-09 | vs ATH | 1 | Under |
| 2026-06-10 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-11 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-12 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-13 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-14 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-16 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-17 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-18 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-19 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-20 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-21 | vs ATL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-06-22 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-23 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-24 | vs CIN | 1 | Under |
| 2026-06-26 | vs CHC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-06-27 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-28 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-29 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-30 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-02 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-02 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-04 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-05 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-06 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-07 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-08 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-09 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See William Contreras’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.