2B · COL
Willi Castro — Total Bases
2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Willi Castro (COL) sits at 1.24 total bases per game through 51 games, with recent form ahead of that at 1.6 over the last 10. They've gone over 1.5 in 41% of those games. We project 1.53, ahead of the 1.2 market line.
Next: vs MIL — their staff ranks 4 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
Under 1.5 -175 at BetMGM — model 61% to hit, -3.6% EV.
At a line of 1.5 (bovada), Willi Castro went over in 21 of 51 2026 games.
Our projection 1.53 vs market line 1.2 — edge +0.33.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 30/51 | 59% |
| 1.5 | 21/51 | 41% |
| 2.5 | 6/51 | 12% |
| 3.5 | 4/51 | 8% |
Share of 2026 games Castro finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 1.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases
| Date | Opp | Total Bases | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs MIA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs MIA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-03-30 | vs TOR | 2 | Over |
| 2026-03-31 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-05 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs PHI | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs HOU | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs HOU | 6 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs SD | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-16 | vs HOU | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs LAD | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs SD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CIN | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-30 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs ATL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs ATL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-04 | vs NYM | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs NYM | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs PHI | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs AZ | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs AZ | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs TEX | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs AZ | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs AZ | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-28 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs SF | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SF | 1 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs LAA | 4 | Over |
| 2026-06-04 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Willi Castro’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.