EdgeTake

DH · SD

Will Wagner — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
10
Runs
3
Per Game
0.30
Projection
0.4
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Will Wagner (SD) has averaged 0.3 runs per game across 10 games this season, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.3. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 20% of games this season. We project 0.4, short of the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs ATL — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Grant Holmes (RHP)

vs LHP
vs RHP · tonight
.280
.739 OPS · 0 HR · 31 PA

Career vs Grant Holmes: 1-for-1 (1.000 AVG) over 1 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +200 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -261 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Will Wagner went over in 2 of 10 2026 games.

Our projection 0.4 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.1.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.52/1020%
1.51/1010%

Share of 2026 games Wagner finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.30
Season avg
0.30

Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (2)
0.00
Away (8)
0.38
Home edge
-0.38

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-06-10vs CIN0Under
2026-06-10vs CIN0Under
2026-06-12vs BAL0Under
2026-06-13vs BAL0Under
2026-06-14vs BAL2Over
2026-06-15vs STL0Under
2026-06-16vs STL0Under
2026-06-17vs STL1Over
2026-06-20vs TEX0Under
2026-06-20vs TEX0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Will Wagner’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.