CF · TB
Victor Mesa Jr. — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) sits at 0.13 home runs per game through 8 games, with the last 10 steady at 0.13. They've gone over 0.5 in 13% of those games. Our projection of 0.11 comes in under the market line of 1.17.
Next: @ MIA — their staff ranks 19 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Victor Mesa Jr. went over in 1 of 8 2026 games.
Our projection 0.11 vs market line 1.17 — edge -1.06.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1/8 | 13% |
Share of 2026 games Jr. finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 8 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-01 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Victor Mesa Jr.’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.