RF · MIL
Sal Frelick — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Sal Frelick (MIL) has averaged 0.75 hits per game across 56 games this season, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.8. They've gone over 1.5 in 13% of those games. Our model projects 0.98, a step above the market line of 0.73.
Next: @ COL — their staff ranks 30 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
Under 1.5 -225 at BetMGM — model 71% to hit, +2.4% EV.
At a line of 1.5 (draftkings), Sal Frelick went over in 7 of 56 2026 games.
Our projection 0.98 vs market line 0.73 — edge +0.25.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 35/56 | 63% |
| 1.5 | 7/56 | 13% |
| 2.5 | 0/56 | 0% |
Share of 2026 games Frelick finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 1.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs CWS | 1 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs CWS | 1 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs TB | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs KC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs KC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs BOS | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs BOS | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs BOS | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs TOR | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs MIA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs MIA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs DET | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs DET | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs DET | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs AZ | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs AZ | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs WSH | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs WSH | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs STL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs STL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-08 | vs NYY | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs SD | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs SD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-14 | vs SD | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs MIN | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs MIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-18 | vs CHC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs CHC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs LAD | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs STL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs HOU | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-01 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-03 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-04 | vs SF | 1 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Sal Frelick’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.