EdgeTake

3B · MIN

Royce Lewis — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
60
Home Runs
9
Per Game
0.15
Projection
0.16
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 60 games this season, Royce Lewis (MIN) is averaging 0.15 home runs per game, with recent form ahead of that at 0.2 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 15% of those games. Our model projects 0.16, below the market line of 1.12.

Next matchup

Next: vs ATH — their staff ranks 29 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Mason Barnett (RHP)

vs LHP
.215
.705 OPS · 2 HR · 75 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.210
.665 OPS · 8 HR · 211 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +400 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Royce Lewis went over in 9 of 60 2026 games.

Our projection 0.16 vs market line 1.12 — edge -0.96.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.59/6015%

Share of 2026 games Lewis finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.20
Season avg
0.15

Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (30)
0.10
Away (30)
0.20
Home edge
-0.10

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs BAL0Under
2026-03-28vs BAL1Over
2026-03-29vs BAL1Over
2026-03-30vs KC0Under
2026-04-01vs KC0Under
2026-04-02vs KC0Under
2026-04-03vs TB0Under
2026-04-04vs TB0Under
2026-04-06vs DET0Under
2026-04-07vs DET0Under
2026-04-08vs DET0Under
2026-04-09vs DET0Under
2026-04-21vs NYM0Under
2026-04-22vs NYM0Under
2026-04-24vs TB1Over
2026-04-25vs TB0Under
2026-04-26vs TB0Under
2026-04-28vs SEA0Under
2026-04-29vs SEA0Under
2026-04-30vs TOR0Under
2026-05-02vs TOR0Under
2026-05-03vs TOR0Under
2026-05-05vs WSH0Under
2026-05-08vs CLE0Under
2026-05-09vs CLE0Under
2026-05-10vs CLE0Under
2026-05-12vs MIA0Under
2026-05-14vs MIA0Under
2026-05-15vs MIL0Under
2026-05-16vs MIL0Under
2026-05-17vs MIL0Under
2026-06-06vs KC0Under
2026-06-07vs KC0Under
2026-06-09vs DET0Under
2026-06-10vs DET1Over
2026-06-11vs DET0Under
2026-06-13vs STL1Over
2026-06-13vs STL1Over
2026-06-14vs STL0Under
2026-06-16vs TEX0Under
2026-06-17vs TEX0Under
2026-06-18vs TEX0Under
2026-06-20vs AZ1Over
2026-06-21vs AZ0Under
2026-06-21vs AZ0Under
2026-06-22vs LAD0Under
2026-06-23vs LAD0Under
2026-06-24vs LAD0Under
2026-06-27vs COL0Under
2026-06-27vs COL0Under
2026-06-28vs COL0Under
2026-06-30vs HOU1Over
2026-07-01vs HOU0Under
2026-07-02vs HOU0Under
2026-07-03vs NYY0Under
2026-07-04vs NYY0Under
2026-07-05vs NYY0Under
2026-07-07vs CLE0Under
2026-07-08vs CLE0Under
2026-07-09vs CLE1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Royce Lewis’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.