C · PHI
Rafael Marchán — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Rafael Marchán (PHI) has averaged 0.33 hits per game across 27 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 0.4 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 33% of games. Our model projects 0.61, a step above the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs NYY — their staff ranks 2 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
Probable starter: Will Warren (RHP)
Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.
Under 0.5 +105 at DraftKings — model 50% to hit, +2.4% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (betonlineag), Rafael Marchán went over in 9 of 27 2026 games.
Our projection 0.61 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.11.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 9/27 | 33% |
| 1.5 | 0/27 | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0/27 | 0% |
Share of 2026 games Marchán finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-05 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-07 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-14 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-17 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-22 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-27 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-07-02 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-06 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Rafael Marchán’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.