EdgeTake

1B · BAL

Pete Alonso — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
94
Home Runs
20
Per Game
0.21
Projection
0.23
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 94 games this season, Pete Alonso (BAL) is averaging 0.21 home runs per game, with the last 10 steady at 0.2. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 21% of games this season. Our projection of 0.23 comes in under the market line of 1.09.

Next matchup

Next: vs ATL — their staff ranks 5 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Bryce Elder (RHP)

vs LHP
.239
.701 OPS · 4 HR · 130 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.254
.855 OPS · 17 HR · 323 PA

Career vs Bryce Elder: 4-for-14, 1 HR (.286 AVG) over 15 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +290 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Pete Alonso went over in 20 of 94 2026 games.

Our projection 0.23 vs market line 1.09 — edge -0.86.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.520/9421%

Share of 2026 games Alonso finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.20
Season avg
0.21

Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (50)
0.22
Away (44)
0.20
Home edge
+0.02

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs MIN0Under
2026-03-28vs MIN0Under
2026-03-29vs MIN0Under
2026-03-30vs TEX0Under
2026-03-31vs TEX1Over
2026-04-01vs TEX0Under
2026-04-03vs PIT0Under
2026-04-04vs PIT0Under
2026-04-05vs PIT0Under
2026-04-06vs CWS0Under
2026-04-07vs CWS0Under
2026-04-08vs CWS0Under
2026-04-10vs SF0Under
2026-04-11vs SF0Under
2026-04-12vs SF0Under
2026-04-13vs AZ1Over
2026-04-14vs AZ0Under
2026-04-15vs AZ0Under
2026-04-16vs CLE0Under
2026-04-17vs CLE0Under
2026-04-18vs CLE0Under
2026-04-19vs CLE0Under
2026-04-20vs KC0Under
2026-04-21vs KC0Under
2026-04-22vs KC1Over
2026-04-24vs BOS0Under
2026-04-25vs BOS0Under
2026-04-26vs BOS0Under
2026-04-28vs HOU1Over
2026-04-29vs HOU0Under
2026-04-30vs HOU0Under
2026-05-01vs NYY1Over
2026-05-02vs NYY1Over
2026-05-03vs NYY0Under
2026-05-04vs NYY0Under
2026-05-05vs MIA0Under
2026-05-06vs MIA1Over
2026-05-07vs MIA0Under
2026-05-08vs ATH1Over
2026-05-09vs ATH0Under
2026-05-10vs ATH0Under
2026-05-11vs NYY0Under
2026-05-12vs NYY0Under
2026-05-13vs NYY0Under
2026-05-15vs WSH0Under
2026-05-16vs WSH0Under
2026-05-17vs WSH0Under
2026-05-18vs TB0Under
2026-05-19vs TB0Under
2026-05-20vs TB1Over
2026-05-22vs DET1Over
2026-05-23vs DET0Under
2026-05-24vs DET0Under
2026-05-25vs TB0Under
2026-05-26vs TB0Under
2026-05-27vs TB0Under
2026-05-28vs TOR0Under
2026-05-29vs TOR1Over
2026-05-30vs TOR0Under
2026-05-31vs TOR0Under
2026-06-02vs BOS1Over
2026-06-03vs BOS0Under
2026-06-04vs BOS0Under
2026-06-05vs TOR0Under
2026-06-06vs TOR1Over
2026-06-07vs TOR0Under
2026-06-08vs SEA0Under
2026-06-09vs SEA0Under
2026-06-10vs SEA1Over
2026-06-11vs SEA1Over
2026-06-12vs SD0Under
2026-06-13vs SD1Over
2026-06-14vs SD0Under
2026-06-17vs SEA0Under
2026-06-18vs SEA0Under
2026-06-18vs SEA0Under
2026-06-20vs LAD1Over
2026-06-21vs LAD0Under
2026-06-21vs LAD1Over
2026-06-23vs LAA0Under
2026-06-24vs LAA0Under
2026-06-24vs LAA0Under
2026-06-26vs WSH0Under
2026-06-27vs WSH0Under
2026-06-28vs WSH1Over
2026-06-29vs CWS0Under
2026-06-30vs CWS0Under
2026-07-01vs CWS0Under
2026-07-03vs CIN0Under
2026-07-04vs CIN0Under
2026-07-05vs CIN0Under
2026-07-07vs CHC0Under
2026-07-08vs CHC1Over
2026-07-09vs CHC0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Pete Alonso’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.