1B · AZ
Pavin Smith — Total Bases
2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Pavin Smith (AZ) sits at 0.17 total bases per game through 6 games, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.17. 17% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our model projects 1.17, a step above the market line of 0.9.
Next: vs WSH — their staff ranks 26 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
Over 0.5 -105 at BetMGM — model 53% to hit, +3.0% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Pavin Smith went over in 1 of 6 2026 games.
Our projection 1.17 vs market line 0.9 — edge +0.27.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1/6 | 17% |
| 1.5 | 0/6 | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0/6 | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0/6 | 0% |
Share of 2026 games Smith finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 6 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases
| Date | Opp | Total Bases | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-04 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-05 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Pavin Smith’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.