1B · AZ
Pavin Smith — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Pavin Smith (AZ) has averaged 0.14 runs per game across 7 games this season, with the last 10 steady at 0.14. They've gone over 0.5 in 14% of those games. Our projection of 0.46 comes in under the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs WSH — their staff ranks 26 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Pavin Smith went over in 1 of 7 2026 games.
Our projection 0.46 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.04.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1/7 | 14% |
| 1.5 | 0/7 | 0% |
Share of 2026 games Smith finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 7 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-29 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-04 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-05 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-06 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Pavin Smith’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.