1B · AZ
Pavin Smith — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Pavin Smith (AZ) has averaged 0 home runs per game across 6 games this season, tracking close to that at 0 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 0% of games. Our projection of 0.1 comes in under the market line of 0.83.
Next: vs WSH — their staff ranks 26 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Pavin Smith went over in 0 of 6 2026 games.
Our projection 0.1 vs market line 0.83 — edge -0.73.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 0/6 | 0% |
Share of 2026 games Smith finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 6 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-04 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-05 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Pavin Smith’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.