EdgeTake

RF · MIA

Owen Caissie — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
79
Runs
30
Per Game
0.38
Projection
0.45
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Owen Caissie (MIA) has averaged 0.38 runs per game across 79 games this season, trending up to 0.6 across the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 32% of games this season. Our projection of 0.45 comes in under the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: vs SD — their staff ranks 13 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Germán Márquez (RHP)

vs LHP
.233
.594 OPS · 0 HR · 34 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.239
.781 OPS · 12 HR · 212 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +180 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -250 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Owen Caissie went over in 25 of 79 2026 games.

Our projection 0.45 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.05.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.525/7932%
1.55/796%

Share of 2026 games Caissie finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.60
Season avg
0.38

Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (39)
0.36
Away (40)
0.40
Home edge
-0.04

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-27vs COL1Over
2026-03-28vs COL0Under
2026-03-29vs COL1Over
2026-03-30vs CWS0Under
2026-03-31vs CWS1Over
2026-04-01vs CWS0Under
2026-04-03vs NYY1Over
2026-04-04vs NYY0Under
2026-04-05vs NYY0Under
2026-04-06vs CIN0Under
2026-04-08vs CIN0Under
2026-04-09vs CIN2Over
2026-04-10vs DET0Under
2026-04-11vs DET0Under
2026-04-13vs ATL0Under
2026-04-14vs ATL0Under
2026-04-15vs ATL0Under
2026-04-17vs MIL0Under
2026-04-18vs MIL0Under
2026-04-19vs MIL1Over
2026-04-20vs STL0Under
2026-04-21vs STL0Under
2026-04-22vs STL0Under
2026-04-25vs SF2Over
2026-04-25vs SF1Over
2026-04-26vs SF0Under
2026-04-28vs LAD0Under
2026-04-29vs LAD0Under
2026-04-29vs LAD0Under
2026-05-01vs PHI0Under
2026-05-03vs PHI0Under
2026-05-04vs PHI0Under
2026-05-05vs BAL1Over
2026-05-06vs BAL0Under
2026-05-09vs WSH0Under
2026-05-13vs MIN2Over
2026-05-14vs MIN0Under
2026-05-15vs TB0Under
2026-05-16vs TB0Under
2026-05-17vs TB1Over
2026-05-18vs ATL0Under
2026-05-20vs ATL0Under
2026-05-21vs ATL1Over
2026-05-22vs NYM0Under
2026-05-23vs NYM0Under
2026-05-24vs NYM0Under
2026-05-25vs TOR0Under
2026-05-27vs TOR0Under
2026-05-29vs NYM2Over
2026-05-30vs NYM0Under
2026-05-31vs NYM0Under
2026-06-01vs WSH0Under
2026-06-02vs WSH1Over
2026-06-03vs WSH0Under
2026-06-05vs TB0Under
2026-06-07vs TB0Under
2026-06-09vs AZ0Under
2026-06-10vs AZ1Over
2026-06-11vs AZ0Under
2026-06-12vs PIT0Under
2026-06-14vs PIT0Under
2026-06-15vs PHI0Under
2026-06-17vs PHI1Over
2026-06-19vs SF1Over
2026-06-20vs SF0Under
2026-06-21vs SF0Under
2026-06-22vs TEX1Over
2026-06-23vs TEX1Over
2026-06-24vs TEX1Over
2026-06-27vs STL0Under
2026-06-27vs STL0Under
2026-06-28vs STL1Over
2026-06-30vs COL1Over
2026-07-01vs COL2Over
2026-07-02vs COL0Under
2026-07-02vs COL0Under
2026-07-04vs ATH1Over
2026-07-05vs ATH0Under
2026-07-07vs SEA1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Owen Caissie’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.