3B · AZ
Nolan Arenado — Total Bases
2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Nolan Arenado (AZ) sits at 1.51 total bases per game through 57 games, while recent form sits lower at 1.2 over the last 10. 35% of those games have finished over 1.5. Our model projects 1.59, a step above the market line of 1.43.
Next: vs WSH — their staff ranks 26 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
Under 1.5 -162 at DraftKings — model 60% to hit, -2.9% EV.
At a line of 1.5 (bovada), Nolan Arenado went over in 20 of 57 2026 games.
Our projection 1.59 vs market line 1.43 — edge +0.16.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 37/57 | 65% |
| 1.5 | 20/57 | 35% |
| 2.5 | 12/57 | 21% |
| 3.5 | 9/57 | 16% |
Share of 2026 games Arenado finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 1.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases
| Date | Opp | Total Bases | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs LAD | 1 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs DET | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs DET | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs ATL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs ATL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs ATL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs NYM | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs PHI | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-13 | vs BAL | 8 | Over |
| 2026-04-14 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs TOR | 5 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs CWS | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CWS | 7 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CWS | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs SD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs MIL | 4 | Over |
| 2026-04-30 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs CHC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs CHC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs CHC | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs PIT | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYM | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYM | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs TEX | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-13 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs TEX | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs COL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs SF | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs SF | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-22 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs SF | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs SEA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs LAD | 4 | Over |
| 2026-06-03 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-04 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-05 | vs LAD | 1 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nolan Arenado’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.