3B · LAA
Nick Madrigal — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Nick Madrigal (LAA) sits at 0.17 runs per game through 6 games, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.17. The over on 0.5 has hit in 17% of games. Our model projects 0.44, below the market line of 0.5.
Next: @ LAD — their staff ranks 1 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Nick Madrigal went over in 1 of 6 2026 games.
Our projection 0.44 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.06.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1/6 | 17% |
| 1.5 | 0/6 | 0% |
Share of 2026 games Madrigal finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 6 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-04 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nick Madrigal’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.