RF · SD
Nick Castellanos — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Nick Castellanos (SD) has averaged 0.56 hits per game across 39 games this season, though the last 10 have cooled to 0.4. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 49% of games this season. We project 0.68, short of the 0.71 market line.
Next: vs NYM — their staff ranks 9 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
Over 0.5 -210 at BetMGM — model 57% to hit, -15.9% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Nick Castellanos went over in 19 of 39 2026 games.
Our projection 0.68 vs market line 0.71 — edge -0.03.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 19/39 | 49% |
| 1.5 | 3/39 | 8% |
| 2.5 | 0/39 | 0% |
Share of 2026 games Castellanos finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-31 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-04 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs BOS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-06 | vs PIT | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-12 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-16 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-08 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-12 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-13 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs MIL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-21 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs ATH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nick Castellanos’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.