EdgeTake

SS · HOU

Nick Allen — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
35
Home Runs
1
Per Game
0.03
Projection
0.04
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 35 games this season, Nick Allen (HOU) is averaging 0.03 home runs per game, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. 3% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our model projects 0.04, below the market line of 0.87.

Next matchup

Next: @ CWS — their staff ranks 15 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Sean Burke (RHP)

vs LHP
.320
.877 OPS · 1 HR · 28 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.214
.492 OPS · 0 HR · 78 PA

Career vs Sean Burke: 1-for-2 (.500 AVG) over 2 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +1100 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Nick Allen went over in 1 of 35 2026 games.

Our projection 0.04 vs market line 0.87 — edge -0.83.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.51/353%

Share of 2026 games Allen finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.00
Season avg
0.03

Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (21)
0.00
Away (14)
0.07
Home edge
-0.07

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs LAA0Under
2026-04-01vs BOS0Under
2026-04-04vs ATH0Under
2026-04-04vs ATH0Under
2026-04-05vs ATH0Under
2026-04-12vs SEA0Under
2026-04-12vs SEA0Under
2026-04-13vs SEA0Under
2026-04-16vs COL0Under
2026-04-18vs STL0Under
2026-05-06vs LAD0Under
2026-05-06vs LAD0Under
2026-05-08vs CIN0Under
2026-05-10vs CIN0Under
2026-05-17vs TEX0Under
2026-05-24vs CHC1Over
2026-05-25vs TEX0Under
2026-05-27vs TEX0Under
2026-05-29vs TEX0Under
2026-05-30vs MIL0Under
2026-05-30vs MIL0Under
2026-05-31vs MIL0Under
2026-06-04vs PIT0Under
2026-06-05vs PIT0Under
2026-06-06vs ATH0Under
2026-06-06vs ATH0Under
2026-06-07vs ATH0Under
2026-06-30vs MIN0Under
2026-07-01vs MIN0Under
2026-07-02vs MIN0Under
2026-07-04vs TB0Under
2026-07-04vs TB0Under
2026-07-05vs TB0Under
2026-07-07vs WSH0Under
2026-07-08vs WSH0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nick Allen’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.