OF · STL
Nelson Velázquez — Total Bases
2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Nelson Velázquez (STL) sits at 2 total bases per game through 5 games, with the last 10 steady at 2. The over on 1.5 has hit in 40% of games. We project 2.21, ahead of the 1.5 market line.
Next: vs CIN — their staff ranks 27 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 1.5 (betrivers), Nelson Velázquez went over in 2 of 5 2026 games.
Our projection 2.21 vs market line 1.5 — edge +0.71.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 4/5 | 80% |
| 1.5 | 2/5 | 40% |
| 2.5 | 2/5 | 40% |
| 3.5 | 1/5 | 20% |
Share of 2026 games Velázquez finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 1.5 in 2 of the last 5 games.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases
| Date | Opp | Total Bases | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | vs CHC | 5 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs CHC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-06-01 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs TEX | 1 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs TEX | 3 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nelson Velázquez’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.