DH · CIN
Nathaniel Lowe — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 67 games this season, Nathaniel Lowe (CIN) is averaging 0.13 home runs per game, with the last 10 dipping to 0. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 12% of games this season. Our model projects 0.12, below the market line of 1.27.
Next: @ STL — their staff ranks 14 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
Probable starter: Andre Pallante (RHP)
Career vs Andre Pallante: 4-for-11, 2 HR (.364 AVG) over 12 PA.
Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Nathaniel Lowe went over in 8 of 67 2026 games.
Our projection 0.12 vs market line 1.27 — edge -1.15.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 8/67 | 12% |
Share of 2026 games Lowe finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-09 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs DET | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-25 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-29 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-01 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-06 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-06 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-07 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-09 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-10 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-10 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-12 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-13 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-14 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-16 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-17 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-19 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-20 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-21 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-22 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-23 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-24 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-26 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-27 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-28 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-30 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-02 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-04 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-07 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathaniel Lowe’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.