RF · TOR
Nathan Lukes — Total Bases
2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 28 games this season, Nathan Lukes (TOR) is averaging 1.32 total bases per game, with recent form ahead of that at 2.2 over the last 10. They've gone over 1.5 in 43% of those games. Our model projects 2.07, a step above the market line of 1.41.
Next: vs BAL — their staff ranks 25 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
Over 1.5 +144 at DraftKings — model 44% to hit, +7.2% EV.
At a line of 1.5 (williamhill_us), Nathan Lukes went over in 12 of 28 2026 games.
Our projection 2.07 vs market line 1.41 — edge +0.66.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 16/28 | 57% |
| 1.5 | 12/28 | 43% |
| 2.5 | 5/28 | 18% |
| 3.5 | 2/28 | 7% |
Share of 2026 games Lukes finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 1.5 in 8 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases
| Date | Opp | Total Bases | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs AZ | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs AZ | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs AZ | 5 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs LAA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs LAA | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-24 | vs CLE | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-25 | vs MIA | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs MIA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-28 | vs BAL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-29 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs BAL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs ATL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-03 | vs ATL | 5 | Over |
| 2026-06-04 | vs ATL | 2 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathan Lukes’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.