RF · TOR
Nathan Lukes — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 29 games this season, Nathan Lukes (TOR) is averaging 0.03 home runs per game, trending up to 0.1 across the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 3% of games. Our projection of 0.12 comes in under the market line of 1.06.
Next: vs BAL — their staff ranks 25 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Nathan Lukes went over in 1 of 29 2026 games.
Our projection 0.12 vs market line 1.06 — edge -0.94.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1/29 | 3% |
Share of 2026 games Lukes finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-29 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-04 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-05 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathan Lukes’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.