RF · TOR
Nathan Lukes — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) sits at 1 hits per game through 28 games, trending up to 1.6 across the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 57% of those games. Our model projects 1.62, a step above the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs BAL — their staff ranks 25 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
Over 0.5 -205 at DraftKings — model 72% to hit, +7.3% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (betrivers), Nathan Lukes went over in 16 of 28 2026 games.
Our projection 1.62 vs market line 0.5 — edge +1.12.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 16/28 | 57% |
| 1.5 | 9/28 | 32% |
| 2.5 | 3/28 | 11% |
Share of 2026 games Lukes finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 10 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs AZ | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs AZ | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs LAA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-24 | vs CLE | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-25 | vs MIA | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-28 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs ATL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-03 | vs ATL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-04 | vs ATL | 2 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathan Lukes’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.