EdgeTake

OF · BOS

Nate Eaton — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
5
Home Runs
1
Per Game
0.20
Projection
0.11
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Nate Eaton (BOS) has averaged 0.2 home runs per game across 5 games this season, tracking close to that at 0.2 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 20% of games this season. Our projection of 0.11 comes in under the market line of 0.83.

Next matchup

Next: vs NYY — their staff ranks 1 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Cam Schlittler (RHP)

vs LHP
.333
1.000 OPS · 0 HR · 8 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.200
.933 OPS · 1 HR · 12 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +525 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Nate Eaton went over in 1 of 5 2026 games.

Our projection 0.11 vs market line 0.83 — edge -0.72.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.51/520%

Share of 2026 games Eaton finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 5 avg
0.20
Season avg
0.20

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 5 games.

Home / away splits

Home (1)
0.00
Away (4)
0.25
Home edge
-0.25

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-06-10vs TB0Under
2026-06-17vs TOR0Under
2026-06-21vs SEA0Under
2026-06-21vs SEA1Over
2026-06-24vs COL0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nate Eaton’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.