EdgeTake

3B · CWS

Miguel Vargas — Hits

2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
91
Hits
79
Per Game
0.87
Projection
0.99
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Miguel Vargas (CWS) has averaged 0.87 hits per game across 91 games this season, though the last 10 have cooled to 0.5. They've gone over 0.5 in 64% of those games. Our model projects 0.99, a step above the market line of 0.54.

Next matchup

Next: vs HOU — their staff ranks 26 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Hunter Brown (RHP)

vs LHP
.270
.954 OPS · 9 HR · 133 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.231
.782 OPS · 12 HR · 307 PA

Career vs Hunter Brown: 1-for-2 (.500 AVG) over 3 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books

Under 0.5 +187 at DraftKings — model 35% to hit, +1.6% EV.

Over 0.5 -220 BetMGMUnder 0.5 +187 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (betrivers), Miguel Vargas went over in 58 of 91 2026 games.

Our projection 0.99 vs market line 0.54 — edge +0.45.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.558/9164%
1.518/9120%
2.53/913%

Share of 2026 games Vargas finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.50
Season avg
0.87

Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (45)
0.96
Away (46)
0.78
Home edge
+0.17

Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Hits

DateOppHitsvs Line
2026-03-26vs MIL0Under
2026-03-28vs MIL0Under
2026-03-29vs MIL2Over
2026-03-30vs MIA2Over
2026-03-31vs MIA1Over
2026-04-01vs MIA0Under
2026-04-02vs TOR0Under
2026-04-04vs TOR2Over
2026-04-05vs TOR1Over
2026-04-06vs BAL0Under
2026-04-07vs BAL0Under
2026-04-08vs BAL1Over
2026-04-09vs KC0Under
2026-04-10vs KC0Under
2026-04-12vs KC0Under
2026-04-14vs TB0Under
2026-04-15vs TB0Under
2026-04-16vs TB1Over
2026-04-18vs ATH1Over
2026-04-18vs ATH0Under
2026-04-19vs ATH2Over
2026-04-22vs AZ1Over
2026-04-23vs AZ2Over
2026-04-23vs AZ1Over
2026-04-24vs WSH2Over
2026-04-25vs WSH1Over
2026-04-26vs WSH0Under
2026-04-27vs LAA1Over
2026-04-28vs LAA1Over
2026-04-29vs LAA1Over
2026-05-02vs SD1Over
2026-05-03vs SD1Over
2026-05-03vs SD1Over
2026-05-05vs LAA2Over
2026-05-06vs LAA0Under
2026-05-06vs LAA0Under
2026-05-08vs SEA1Over
2026-05-09vs SEA2Over
2026-05-10vs SEA1Over
2026-05-12vs KC2Over
2026-05-13vs KC1Over
2026-05-14vs KC1Over
2026-05-15vs CHC2Over
2026-05-16vs CHC1Over
2026-05-17vs CHC1Over
2026-05-19vs SEA0Under
2026-05-20vs SEA0Under
2026-05-20vs SEA0Under
2026-05-23vs SF1Over
2026-05-23vs SF2Over
2026-05-24vs SF1Over
2026-05-25vs MIN0Under
2026-05-26vs MIN0Under
2026-05-27vs MIN1Over
2026-05-28vs MIN0Under
2026-05-29vs DET2Over
2026-05-30vs DET1Over
2026-05-31vs DET0Under
2026-06-01vs MIN3Over
2026-06-02vs MIN1Over
2026-06-03vs MIN1Over
2026-06-05vs PHI1Over
2026-06-06vs PHI1Over
2026-06-07vs PHI1Over
2026-06-09vs ATL1Over
2026-06-10vs ATL1Over
2026-06-12vs LAD3Over
2026-06-13vs LAD0Under
2026-06-14vs LAD1Over
2026-06-16vs NYY0Under
2026-06-17vs NYY1Over
2026-06-18vs NYY0Under
2026-06-19vs DET1Over
2026-06-20vs DET0Under
2026-06-21vs DET0Under
2026-06-22vs CLE1Over
2026-06-23vs CLE1Over
2026-06-24vs CLE2Over
2026-06-26vs KC3Over
2026-06-27vs KC1Over
2026-06-28vs KC2Over
2026-06-29vs BAL1Over
2026-06-30vs BAL0Under
2026-07-01vs BAL0Under
2026-07-02vs CLE1Over
2026-07-03vs CLE2Over
2026-07-04vs CLE0Under
2026-07-05vs CLE1Over
2026-07-07vs BOS0Under
2026-07-08vs BOS0Under
2026-07-09vs BOS0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Miguel Vargas’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.