EdgeTake

LF · ATL

Mauricio Dubón — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
88
Runs
41
Per Game
0.47
Projection
0.48
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Mauricio Dubón (ATL) sits at 0.47 runs per game through 88 games, with recent form ahead of that at 0.7 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 38% of games this season. Our model projects 0.48, below the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: @ BAL — their staff ranks 20 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Brandon Young (RHP)

vs LHP
.241
.693 OPS · 4 HR · 153 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.279
.747 OPS · 6 HR · 254 PA

Career vs Brandon Young: 0-for-5 (.000 AVG) over 5 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +150 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -199 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Mauricio Dubón went over in 33 of 88 2026 games.

Our projection 0.48 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.02.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.533/8838%
1.57/888%

Share of 2026 games Dubón finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.70
Season avg
0.47

Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (43)
0.58
Away (45)
0.36
Home edge
+0.23

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-27vs KC0Under
2026-03-28vs KC0Under
2026-03-30vs ATH0Under
2026-03-31vs ATH0Under
2026-04-01vs ATH1Over
2026-04-03vs AZ3Over
2026-04-04vs AZ0Under
2026-04-04vs AZ0Under
2026-04-05vs AZ1Over
2026-04-07vs LAA1Over
2026-04-08vs LAA1Over
2026-04-08vs LAA0Under
2026-04-10vs CLE1Over
2026-04-11vs CLE0Under
2026-04-12vs CLE2Over
2026-04-13vs MIA0Under
2026-04-14vs MIA1Over
2026-04-15vs MIA0Under
2026-04-17vs PHI0Under
2026-04-18vs PHI0Under
2026-04-19vs PHI0Under
2026-04-21vs WSH1Over
2026-04-22vs WSH0Under
2026-04-23vs WSH0Under
2026-04-24vs PHI1Over
2026-04-25vs PHI0Under
2026-04-26vs PHI1Over
2026-04-28vs DET1Over
2026-04-29vs DET0Under
2026-04-30vs DET1Over
2026-05-02vs COL1Over
2026-05-03vs COL0Under
2026-05-03vs COL0Under
2026-05-05vs SEA0Under
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-09vs LAD0Under
2026-05-10vs LAD1Over
2026-05-10vs LAD0Under
2026-05-12vs CHC0Under
2026-05-13vs CHC1Over
2026-05-14vs CHC0Under
2026-05-15vs BOS0Under
2026-05-16vs BOS0Under
2026-05-18vs MIA0Under
2026-05-19vs MIA1Over
2026-05-20vs MIA1Over
2026-05-21vs MIA0Under
2026-05-22vs WSH0Under
2026-05-23vs WSH0Under
2026-05-24vs WSH0Under
2026-05-26vs BOS1Over
2026-05-27vs BOS0Under
2026-05-28vs BOS0Under
2026-05-30vs CIN0Under
2026-05-31vs CIN0Under
2026-06-02vs TOR0Under
2026-06-03vs TOR1Over
2026-06-04vs TOR1Over
2026-06-05vs PIT2Over
2026-06-06vs PIT2Over
2026-06-07vs PIT0Under
2026-06-09vs CWS0Under
2026-06-10vs CWS0Under
2026-06-12vs NYM0Under
2026-06-13vs NYM0Under
2026-06-14vs NYM0Under
2026-06-16vs SF0Under
2026-06-17vs SF1Over
2026-06-19vs MIL0Under
2026-06-20vs MIL0Under
2026-06-21vs MIL1Over
2026-06-23vs SD0Under
2026-06-24vs SD2Over
2026-06-25vs SD0Under
2026-06-27vs SF2Over
2026-06-28vs SF0Under
2026-06-28vs SF0Under
2026-06-30vs STL1Over
2026-07-01vs STL1Over
2026-07-02vs STL1Over
2026-07-03vs NYM1Over
2026-07-05vs NYM2Over
2026-07-05vs NYM1Over
2026-07-06vs NYM0Under
2026-07-07vs PIT0Under
2026-07-08vs PIT0Under
2026-07-09vs PIT0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Mauricio Dubón’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.