EdgeTake

CF · DET

Matt Vierling — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
71
Home Runs
5
Per Game
0.07
Projection
0.09
Current Line
2.5
Outlook

Matt Vierling (DET) sits at 0.07 home runs per game through 71 games, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. The over on 2.5 has hit in 0% of games. Our projection of 0.09 comes in under the market line of 1.24.

Next matchup

Next: vs KC — their staff ranks 28 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Michael Wacha (RHP)

vs LHP
.243
.714 OPS · 2 HR · 117 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.182
.494 OPS · 3 HR · 164 PA

Career vs Michael Wacha: 1-for-7 (.143 AVG) over 9 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +500 Caesars

At a line of 2.5 (betrivers), Matt Vierling went over in 0 of 71 2026 games.

Our projection 0.09 vs market line 1.24 — edge -1.15.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.55/717%

Share of 2026 games Vierling finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.00
Season avg
0.07

Over 2.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (39)
0.13
Away (32)
0.00
Home edge
+0.13

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-28vs SD0Under
2026-03-29vs SD0Under
2026-04-01vs AZ0Under
2026-04-04vs STL1Under
2026-04-05vs STL0Under
2026-04-06vs MIN0Under
2026-04-08vs MIN0Under
2026-04-11vs MIA0Under
2026-04-14vs KC0Under
2026-04-16vs KC0Under
2026-04-17vs BOS0Under
2026-04-19vs BOS0Under
2026-04-20vs BOS0Under
2026-04-21vs MIL0Under
2026-04-23vs MIL0Under
2026-04-24vs CIN0Under
2026-04-25vs CIN0Under
2026-04-26vs CIN0Under
2026-04-28vs ATL0Under
2026-04-30vs ATL0Under
2026-05-01vs TEX0Under
2026-05-03vs TEX0Under
2026-05-04vs BOS0Under
2026-05-05vs BOS1Under
2026-05-06vs BOS0Under
2026-05-08vs KC0Under
2026-05-09vs KC0Under
2026-05-10vs KC0Under
2026-05-12vs NYM0Under
2026-05-13vs NYM0Under
2026-05-15vs TOR0Under
2026-05-16vs TOR1Under
2026-05-17vs TOR0Under
2026-05-18vs CLE1Under
2026-05-19vs CLE0Under
2026-05-20vs CLE0Under
2026-05-21vs CLE0Under
2026-05-23vs BAL0Under
2026-05-24vs BAL0Under
2026-05-26vs LAA0Under
2026-05-27vs LAA0Under
2026-05-28vs LAA0Under
2026-05-29vs CWS0Under
2026-05-30vs CWS0Under
2026-05-31vs CWS0Under
2026-06-02vs TB0Under
2026-06-03vs TB0Under
2026-06-06vs SEA0Under
2026-06-07vs SEA0Under
2026-06-09vs MIN0Under
2026-06-10vs MIN0Under
2026-06-11vs MIN0Under
2026-06-13vs CLE0Under
2026-06-17vs HOU0Under
2026-06-17vs HOU0Under
2026-06-19vs CWS1Under
2026-06-20vs CWS0Under
2026-06-21vs CWS0Under
2026-06-22vs NYY0Under
2026-06-23vs NYY0Under
2026-06-24vs NYY0Under
2026-06-26vs HOU0Under
2026-06-27vs HOU0Under
2026-06-28vs HOU0Under
2026-06-29vs NYY0Under
2026-07-01vs NYY0Under
2026-07-03vs TEX0Under
2026-07-05vs TEX0Under
2026-07-07vs ATH0Under
2026-07-08vs ATH0Under
2026-07-09vs ATH0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Matt Vierling’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.