EdgeTake

3B · SF

Matt Chapman — Hits

2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
84
Hits
72
Per Game
0.86
Projection
1.03
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 84 games this season, Matt Chapman (SF) is averaging 0.86 hits per game, though the last 10 have cooled to 0.4. 54% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our projection of 1.03 sits above the market line of 0.56.

Next matchup

Next: vs LAA — their staff ranks 24 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)

vs LHP
.250
.768 OPS · 2 HR · 95 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.229
.664 OPS · 5 HR · 257 PA

Career vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3-for-7 (.429 AVG) over 7 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books

Over 0.5 -165 at BetMGM — model 62% to hit, +0.1% EV.

Over 0.5 -165 BetMGMUnder 0.5 +145 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (betonlineag), Matt Chapman went over in 45 of 84 2026 games.

Our projection 1.03 vs market line 0.56 — edge +0.47.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.545/8454%
1.522/8426%
2.54/845%

Share of 2026 games Chapman finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.40
Season avg
0.86

Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (39)
0.92
Away (45)
0.80
Home edge
+0.12

Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Hits

DateOppHitsvs Line
2026-03-26vs NYY0Under
2026-03-27vs NYY0Under
2026-03-28vs NYY1Over
2026-03-31vs SD1Over
2026-04-01vs SD2Over
2026-04-01vs SD0Under
2026-04-03vs NYM2Over
2026-04-04vs NYM0Under
2026-04-05vs NYM1Over
2026-04-05vs NYM2Over
2026-04-07vs PHI2Over
2026-04-08vs PHI3Over
2026-04-08vs PHI1Over
2026-04-10vs BAL2Over
2026-04-11vs BAL1Over
2026-04-12vs BAL0Under
2026-04-14vs CIN0Under
2026-04-15vs CIN1Over
2026-04-16vs CIN1Over
2026-04-17vs WSH3Over
2026-04-18vs WSH2Over
2026-04-19vs WSH2Over
2026-04-22vs LAD0Under
2026-04-23vs LAD1Over
2026-04-23vs LAD0Under
2026-04-25vs MIA1Over
2026-04-25vs MIA1Over
2026-04-26vs MIA0Under
2026-04-28vs PHI0Under
2026-04-29vs PHI0Under
2026-04-30vs PHI2Over
2026-05-01vs TB0Under
2026-05-02vs TB0Under
2026-05-03vs TB0Under
2026-05-06vs SD0Under
2026-05-06vs SD0Under
2026-05-09vs PIT0Under
2026-05-10vs PIT1Over
2026-05-10vs PIT2Over
2026-05-12vs LAD0Under
2026-05-13vs LAD0Under
2026-05-14vs LAD1Over
2026-05-15vs LAD0Under
2026-05-16vs ATH0Under
2026-05-17vs ATH1Over
2026-05-17vs ATH2Over
2026-05-19vs AZ0Under
2026-05-20vs AZ1Over
2026-05-20vs AZ2Over
2026-05-23vs CWS1Over
2026-05-23vs CWS2Over
2026-05-24vs CWS2Over
2026-05-25vs AZ0Under
2026-05-27vs AZ0Under
2026-05-27vs AZ0Under
2026-05-30vs COL1Over
2026-05-31vs COL2Over
2026-05-31vs COL1Over
2026-06-01vs MIL1Over
2026-06-02vs MIL0Under
2026-06-03vs MIL0Under
2026-06-04vs MIL3Over
2026-06-05vs CHC2Over
2026-06-06vs CHC0Under
2026-06-08vs CHC2Over
2026-06-09vs WSH2Over
2026-06-10vs WSH1Over
2026-06-10vs WSH4Over
2026-06-13vs CHC0Under
2026-06-14vs CHC1Over
2026-06-14vs CHC1Over
2026-06-16vs ATL0Under
2026-06-17vs ATL0Under
2026-06-19vs MIA0Under
2026-06-20vs MIA0Under
2026-06-21vs MIA0Under
2026-06-24vs ATH1Over
2026-06-25vs ATH0Under
2026-06-25vs ATH1Over
2026-06-27vs ATL0Under
2026-06-28vs ATL0Under
2026-06-28vs ATL2Over
2026-06-30vs AZ0Under
2026-07-01vs AZ0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Matt Chapman’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.