EdgeTake

3B · KC

Maikel Garcia — Hits

2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
69
Hits
70
Per Game
1.01
Projection
1.15
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Maikel Garcia (KC) sits at 1.01 hits per game through 69 games, while recent form sits lower at 0.9 over the last 10. 68% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our model projects 1.15, a step above the market line of 0.8.

Next matchup

Next: @ DET — their staff ranks 6 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Casey Mize (RHP)

vs LHP
.327
.917 OPS · 2 HR · 60 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.245
.638 OPS · 1 HR · 234 PA

Career vs Casey Mize: 7-for-12 (.583 AVG) over 13 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books

Over 0.5 -182 at DraftKings — model 65% to hit, +0.8% EV.

Over 0.5 -182 DraftKingsUnder 0.5 +150 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betonlineag), Maikel Garcia went over in 47 of 69 2026 games.

Our projection 1.15 vs market line 0.8 — edge +0.35.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.547/6968%
1.518/6926%
2.55/697%

Share of 2026 games Garcia finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.90
Season avg
1.01

Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (36)
1.19
Away (33)
0.82
Home edge
+0.38

Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Hits

DateOppHitsvs Line
2026-03-27vs ATL1Over
2026-03-28vs ATL0Under
2026-03-29vs ATL1Over
2026-03-30vs MIN2Over
2026-04-01vs MIN1Over
2026-04-02vs MIN1Over
2026-04-03vs MIL3Over
2026-04-04vs MIL0Under
2026-04-05vs MIL2Over
2026-04-06vs CLE2Over
2026-04-07vs CLE0Under
2026-04-08vs CLE1Over
2026-04-09vs CWS2Over
2026-04-10vs CWS1Over
2026-04-11vs CWS2Over
2026-04-12vs CWS0Under
2026-04-14vs DET1Over
2026-04-15vs DET0Under
2026-04-16vs DET1Over
2026-04-17vs NYY0Under
2026-04-18vs NYY1Over
2026-04-19vs NYY0Under
2026-04-20vs BAL3Over
2026-04-21vs BAL1Over
2026-04-22vs BAL0Under
2026-04-26vs LAA0Under
2026-04-29vs ATH2Over
2026-04-30vs ATH0Under
2026-04-30vs ATH3Over
2026-05-02vs SEA1Over
2026-05-03vs SEA1Over
2026-05-03vs SEA1Over
2026-05-04vs CLE0Under
2026-05-05vs CLE0Under
2026-05-06vs CLE2Over
2026-05-07vs CLE2Over
2026-05-08vs DET1Over
2026-05-09vs DET1Over
2026-05-10vs DET3Over
2026-05-12vs CWS1Over
2026-05-13vs CWS0Under
2026-05-14vs CWS1Over
2026-05-16vs STL0Under
2026-05-16vs STL1Over
2026-05-17vs STL1Over
2026-05-18vs BOS1Over
2026-05-19vs BOS1Over
2026-05-20vs BOS0Under
2026-05-22vs SEA2Over
2026-05-23vs SEA1Over
2026-05-24vs SEA2Over
2026-05-25vs NYY1Over
2026-05-26vs NYY0Under
2026-05-27vs NYY2Over
2026-05-30vs TEX2Over
2026-05-30vs TEX1Over
2026-06-04vs MIN0Under
2026-06-06vs MIN0Under
2026-06-06vs MIN1Over
2026-06-07vs MIN1Over
2026-06-09vs TEX1Over
2026-06-10vs TEX0Under
2026-06-13vs HOU2Over
2026-06-13vs HOU0Under
2026-06-14vs HOU3Over
2026-06-15vs WSH1Over
2026-06-16vs WSH0Under
2026-06-21vs STL0Under
2026-06-22vs TB1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Maikel Garcia’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.