EdgeTake

1B · WSH

Luis García Jr. — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
87
Runs
45
Per Game
0.52
Projection
0.63
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 87 games this season, Luis García Jr. (WSH) is averaging 0.52 runs per game, with recent form ahead of that at 1 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 41% of games this season. Our projection of 0.63 sits above the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: vs AZ — their staff ranks 16 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Mitch Bratt (LHP)

vs LHP · tonight
.217
.598 OPS · 2 HR · 48 PA
vs RHP
.287
.897 OPS · 19 HR · 294 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +143 DraftKingsUnder 0.5 -190 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Luis García Jr. went over in 36 of 87 2026 games.

Our projection 0.63 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.13.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.536/8741%
1.58/879%

Share of 2026 games Jr. finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
1.00
Season avg
0.52

Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (44)
0.43
Away (43)
0.60
Home edge
-0.17

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-26vs CHC1Over
2026-03-28vs CHC0Under
2026-03-29vs CHC0Under
2026-03-30vs PHI1Over
2026-03-31vs PHI0Under
2026-04-01vs PHI0Under
2026-04-03vs LAD0Under
2026-04-04vs LAD1Over
2026-04-05vs LAD1Over
2026-04-06vs STL1Over
2026-04-07vs STL0Under
2026-04-08vs STL0Under
2026-04-10vs MIL1Over
2026-04-12vs MIL1Over
2026-04-13vs PIT0Under
2026-04-14vs PIT1Over
2026-04-15vs PIT0Under
2026-04-16vs PIT1Over
2026-04-17vs SF0Under
2026-04-18vs SF0Under
2026-04-19vs SF0Under
2026-04-20vs ATL0Under
2026-04-21vs ATL1Over
2026-04-22vs ATL1Over
2026-04-23vs ATL0Under
2026-04-24vs CWS1Over
2026-04-25vs CWS1Over
2026-04-26vs CWS0Under
2026-04-28vs NYM0Under
2026-04-30vs NYM1Over
2026-05-01vs MIL0Under
2026-05-02vs MIL0Under
2026-05-03vs MIL0Under
2026-05-08vs MIA0Under
2026-05-09vs MIA1Over
2026-05-10vs MIA1Over
2026-05-12vs CIN2Over
2026-05-13vs CIN0Under
2026-05-14vs CIN0Under
2026-05-15vs BAL0Under
2026-05-16vs BAL0Under
2026-05-17vs BAL0Under
2026-05-18vs NYM0Under
2026-05-19vs NYM0Under
2026-05-20vs NYM0Under
2026-05-21vs NYM0Under
2026-05-22vs ATL0Under
2026-05-23vs ATL0Under
2026-05-24vs ATL0Under
2026-05-25vs CLE2Over
2026-05-27vs CLE0Under
2026-05-29vs SD0Under
2026-05-30vs SD0Under
2026-05-31vs SD1Over
2026-06-01vs MIA0Under
2026-06-02vs MIA0Under
2026-06-03vs MIA0Under
2026-06-06vs AZ2Over
2026-06-06vs AZ0Under
2026-06-07vs AZ0Under
2026-06-09vs SF1Over
2026-06-10vs SF1Over
2026-06-10vs SF1Over
2026-06-12vs SEA0Under
2026-06-13vs SEA2Over
2026-06-14vs SEA0Under
2026-06-15vs KC1Over
2026-06-16vs KC0Under
2026-06-17vs KC0Under
2026-06-19vs TB1Over
2026-06-20vs TB0Under
2026-06-21vs TB0Under
2026-06-22vs PHI1Over
2026-06-23vs PHI2Over
2026-06-24vs PHI1Over
2026-06-26vs BAL0Under
2026-06-27vs BAL1Over
2026-06-28vs BAL3Over
2026-06-29vs BOS0Under
2026-06-30vs BOS0Under
2026-07-01vs BOS1Over
2026-07-03vs PIT2Over
2026-07-04vs PIT0Under
2026-07-05vs PIT1Over
2026-07-06vs HOU1Over
2026-07-07vs HOU0Under
2026-07-08vs HOU2Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Luis García Jr.’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.