EdgeTake

RF · DET

Kerry Carpenter — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
70
Home Runs
13
Per Game
0.19
Projection
0.24
Current Line
2.5
Outlook

Kerry Carpenter (DET) has averaged 0.19 home runs per game across 70 games this season, with the last 10 dipping to 0.1. They've gone over 2.5 in 0% of those games. Our projection of 0.24 comes in under the market line of 1.14.

Next matchup

Next: vs KC — their staff ranks 28 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Randy Dobnak (RHP)

vs LHP
.130
.405 OPS · 0 HR · 27 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.216
.736 OPS · 13 HR · 223 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +350 Caesars

At a line of 2.5 (betrivers), Kerry Carpenter went over in 0 of 70 2026 games.

Our projection 0.24 vs market line 1.14 — edge -0.9.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.513/7019%

Share of 2026 games Carpenter finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.10
Season avg
0.19

Over 2.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (36)
0.22
Away (34)
0.15
Home edge
+0.08

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs SD0Under
2026-03-28vs SD0Under
2026-03-29vs SD0Under
2026-03-31vs AZ0Under
2026-04-01vs AZ0Under
2026-04-01vs AZ0Under
2026-04-03vs STL0Under
2026-04-04vs STL1Under
2026-04-05vs STL1Under
2026-04-07vs MIN0Under
2026-04-08vs MIN0Under
2026-04-09vs MIN0Under
2026-04-10vs MIA0Under
2026-04-11vs MIA0Under
2026-04-12vs MIA1Under
2026-04-15vs KC0Under
2026-04-16vs KC0Under
2026-04-18vs BOS1Under
2026-04-19vs BOS0Under
2026-04-20vs BOS0Under
2026-04-21vs MIL0Under
2026-04-22vs MIL1Under
2026-04-23vs MIL0Under
2026-04-24vs CIN1Under
2026-04-25vs CIN0Under
2026-04-26vs CIN0Under
2026-04-28vs ATL0Under
2026-04-29vs ATL0Under
2026-04-30vs ATL0Under
2026-05-01vs TEX0Under
2026-05-02vs TEX0Under
2026-05-03vs TEX0Under
2026-05-04vs BOS0Under
2026-05-05vs BOS0Under
2026-05-06vs BOS0Under
2026-05-08vs KC0Under
2026-05-09vs KC0Under
2026-05-31vs CWS0Under
2026-06-01vs TB1Under
2026-06-03vs TB0Under
2026-06-05vs SEA1Under
2026-06-06vs SEA0Under
2026-06-07vs SEA0Under
2026-06-09vs MIN1Under
2026-06-10vs MIN0Under
2026-06-11vs MIN0Under
2026-06-12vs CLE0Under
2026-06-13vs CLE0Under
2026-06-16vs HOU0Under
2026-06-17vs HOU0Under
2026-06-17vs HOU1Under
2026-06-19vs CWS0Under
2026-06-20vs CWS0Under
2026-06-21vs CWS0Under
2026-06-22vs NYY0Under
2026-06-23vs NYY0Under
2026-06-24vs NYY0Under
2026-06-25vs HOU0Under
2026-06-26vs HOU1Under
2026-06-27vs HOU1Under
2026-06-28vs HOU0Under
2026-06-29vs NYY0Under
2026-06-30vs NYY1Under
2026-07-01vs NYY0Under
2026-07-03vs TEX0Under
2026-07-04vs TEX0Under
2026-07-05vs TEX0Under
2026-07-07vs ATH0Under
2026-07-08vs ATH0Under
2026-07-09vs ATH0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Kerry Carpenter’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.