EdgeTake

LF · CLE

Kahlil Watson — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
6
Home Runs
1
Per Game
0.17
Projection
0.13
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Kahlil Watson (CLE) sits at 0.17 home runs per game through 6 games, with the last 10 steady at 0.17. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 17% of games this season. Our projection of 0.13 comes in under the market line of 1.12.

Next matchup

Next: vs SEA — their staff ranks 5 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits
vs LHP
.000
.000 OPS · 0 HR · 5 PA
vs RHP
.313
.853 OPS · 1 HR · 17 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +525 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Kahlil Watson went over in 1 of 6 2026 games.

Our projection 0.13 vs market line 1.12 — edge -0.99.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.51/617%

Share of 2026 games Watson finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 6 avg
0.17
Season avg
0.17

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 6 games.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-06-18vs MIL0Under
2026-06-20vs HOU0Under
2026-06-20vs HOU0Under
2026-06-21vs HOU0Under
2026-06-22vs CWS0Under
2026-06-23vs CWS1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Kahlil Watson’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.