EdgeTake

CF · SEA

Julio Rodríguez — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
87
Home Runs
14
Per Game
0.16
Projection
0.18
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Julio Rodríguez (SEA) sits at 0.16 home runs per game through 87 games, though the last 10 have cooled to 0. They've gone over 0.5 in 15% of those games. We project 0.18, short of the 1.15 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ TEX — their staff ranks 11 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP)

vs LHP
.255
.842 OPS · 7 HR · 111 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.257
.705 OPS · 8 HR · 291 PA

Career vs Nathan Eovaldi: 9-for-24, 1 HR (.375 AVG) over 24 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +525 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Julio Rodríguez went over in 13 of 87 2026 games.

Our projection 0.18 vs market line 1.15 — edge -0.97.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.513/8715%

Share of 2026 games Rodríguez finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.00
Season avg
0.16

Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (43)
0.21
Away (44)
0.11
Home edge
+0.10

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-27vs CLE0Under
2026-03-28vs CLE0Under
2026-03-29vs CLE0Under
2026-03-29vs CLE0Under
2026-03-31vs NYY0Under
2026-04-01vs NYY0Under
2026-04-01vs NYY0Under
2026-04-04vs LAA0Under
2026-04-05vs LAA0Under
2026-04-05vs LAA0Under
2026-04-07vs TEX0Under
2026-04-08vs TEX0Under
2026-04-08vs TEX0Under
2026-04-11vs HOU0Under
2026-04-12vs HOU1Over
2026-04-12vs HOU0Under
2026-04-13vs HOU0Under
2026-04-15vs SD0Under
2026-04-16vs SD0Under
2026-04-17vs SD0Under
2026-04-18vs TEX0Under
2026-04-18vs TEX0Under
2026-04-19vs TEX0Under
2026-04-21vs ATH0Under
2026-04-22vs ATH0Under
2026-04-22vs ATH0Under
2026-04-25vs STL0Under
2026-04-25vs STL1Over
2026-04-26vs STL0Under
2026-04-27vs MIN0Under
2026-04-28vs MIN0Under
2026-04-29vs MIN0Under
2026-05-02vs KC2Over
2026-05-03vs KC0Under
2026-05-03vs KC0Under
2026-05-05vs ATL0Under
2026-05-06vs ATL0Under
2026-05-06vs ATL1Over
2026-05-08vs CWS1Over
2026-05-09vs CWS0Under
2026-05-10vs CWS0Under
2026-05-12vs HOU1Over
2026-05-13vs HOU0Under
2026-05-14vs HOU0Under
2026-05-14vs HOU0Under
2026-05-16vs SD0Under
2026-05-16vs SD0Under
2026-05-17vs SD0Under
2026-05-19vs CWS1Over
2026-05-20vs CWS0Under
2026-05-20vs CWS0Under
2026-05-22vs KC0Under
2026-05-23vs KC0Under
2026-05-24vs KC1Over
2026-05-26vs ATH0Under
2026-05-27vs ATH0Under
2026-05-27vs ATH1Over
2026-05-30vs AZ1Over
2026-05-31vs AZ1Over
2026-05-31vs AZ0Under
2026-06-02vs NYM0Under
2026-06-03vs NYM1Over
2026-06-03vs NYM0Under
2026-06-05vs DET0Under
2026-06-06vs DET0Under
2026-06-07vs DET0Under
2026-06-08vs BAL0Under
2026-06-09vs BAL0Under
2026-06-10vs BAL0Under
2026-06-11vs BAL0Under
2026-06-12vs WSH0Under
2026-06-13vs WSH0Under
2026-06-14vs WSH0Under
2026-06-17vs BAL0Under
2026-06-18vs BAL0Under
2026-06-20vs BOS1Over
2026-06-21vs BOS0Under
2026-06-21vs BOS0Under
2026-06-23vs PIT0Under
2026-06-24vs PIT0Under
2026-06-25vs PIT0Under
2026-06-26vs CLE0Under
2026-06-27vs CLE0Under
2026-06-28vs CLE0Under
2026-06-30vs LAA0Under
2026-07-01vs LAA0Under
2026-07-03vs LAA0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Julio Rodríguez’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.