EdgeTake

LF · NYM

Juan Soto — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
75
Home Runs
21
Per Game
0.28
Projection
0.28
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Over 75 games this season, Juan Soto (NYM) is averaging 0.28 home runs per game, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.4. 3% of those games have finished over 1.5. Our model projects 0.28, below the market line of 1.12.

Next matchup

Next: vs LAD — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP)

vs LHP
.276
.809 OPS · 4 HR · 120 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.287
1.021 OPS · 17 HR · 239 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +255 Caesars

At a line of 1.5 (betrivers), Juan Soto went over in 2 of 75 2026 games.

Our projection 0.28 vs market line 1.12 — edge -0.84.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.519/7525%

Share of 2026 games Soto finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.40
Season avg
0.28

Over 1.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (36)
0.31
Away (39)
0.26
Home edge
+0.05

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs PIT0Under
2026-03-28vs PIT0Under
2026-03-29vs PIT0Under
2026-03-30vs STL0Under
2026-03-31vs STL0Under
2026-04-01vs STL1Under
2026-04-03vs SF0Under
2026-04-04vs SF0Under
2026-04-22vs MIN0Under
2026-04-23vs MIN0Under
2026-04-24vs COL0Under
2026-04-25vs COL0Under
2026-04-26vs COL0Under
2026-04-28vs WSH1Under
2026-04-29vs WSH1Under
2026-04-30vs WSH0Under
2026-05-02vs LAA0Under
2026-05-03vs LAA0Under
2026-05-03vs LAA0Under
2026-05-04vs COL0Under
2026-05-06vs COL0Under
2026-05-07vs COL1Under
2026-05-09vs AZ0Under
2026-05-09vs AZ0Under
2026-05-10vs AZ0Under
2026-05-12vs DET0Under
2026-05-13vs DET0Under
2026-05-14vs DET1Under
2026-05-15vs NYY1Under
2026-05-16vs NYY0Under
2026-05-17vs NYY0Under
2026-05-18vs WSH0Under
2026-05-19vs WSH1Under
2026-05-20vs WSH2Over
2026-05-21vs WSH0Under
2026-05-22vs MIA1Under
2026-05-23vs MIA0Under
2026-05-26vs CIN1Under
2026-05-27vs CIN1Under
2026-05-29vs MIA0Under
2026-05-30vs MIA0Under
2026-05-31vs MIA1Under
2026-06-02vs SEA0Under
2026-06-03vs SEA0Under
2026-06-03vs SEA0Under
2026-06-06vs SD0Under
2026-06-07vs SD0Under
2026-06-07vs SD0Under
2026-06-09vs STL0Under
2026-06-10vs STL0Under
2026-06-11vs STL1Under
2026-06-12vs ATL1Under
2026-06-13vs ATL0Under
2026-06-14vs ATL0Under
2026-06-15vs CIN0Under
2026-06-16vs CIN0Under
2026-06-17vs CIN0Under
2026-06-18vs PHI2Over
2026-06-20vs PHI0Under
2026-06-21vs PHI0Under
2026-06-23vs CHC0Under
2026-06-25vs CHC0Under
2026-06-26vs PHI0Under
2026-06-27vs PHI0Under
2026-06-28vs PHI0Under
2026-06-29vs TOR0Under
2026-06-30vs TOR0Under
2026-07-01vs TOR0Under
2026-07-03vs ATL1Under
2026-07-05vs ATL0Under
2026-07-05vs ATL0Under
2026-07-06vs ATL1Under
2026-07-07vs KC1Under
2026-07-08vs KC0Under
2026-07-09vs KC1Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Juan Soto’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.