SS · ATL
Jorge Mateo — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Jorge Mateo (ATL) has averaged 0.83 hits per game across 30 games this season, tracking close to that at 0.8 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 50% of games this season. Our model projects 0.84, a step above the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs PIT — their staff ranks 15 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
Under 0.5 +146 at DraftKings — model 42% to hit, +2.8% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Jorge Mateo went over in 15 of 30 2026 games.
Our projection 0.84 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.34.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 15/30 | 50% |
| 1.5 | 8/30 | 27% |
| 2.5 | 1/30 | 3% |
Share of 2026 games Mateo finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-05 | vs AZ | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs CLE | 4 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-30 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-05 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs BOS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs BOS | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-28 | vs BOS | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-04 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jorge Mateo’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.