EdgeTake

LF · AZ

Jordan Lawlar — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
12
Runs
6
Per Game
0.50
Projection
0.44
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Jordan Lawlar (AZ) sits at 0.5 runs per game through 12 games, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.6. The over on 0.5 has hit in 42% of games. Our projection of 0.44 comes in under the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: @ WSH — their staff ranks 27 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Foster Griffin (LHP)

vs LHP · tonight
.313
.796 OPS · 0 HR · 19 PA
vs RHP
.318
.900 OPS · 1 HR · 25 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +140 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -190 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Jordan Lawlar went over in 5 of 12 2026 games.

Our projection 0.44 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.06.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.55/1242%
1.51/128%

Share of 2026 games Lawlar finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.60
Season avg
0.50

Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (8)
0.63
Away (4)
0.25
Home edge
+0.38

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-27vs LAD0Under
2026-03-28vs LAD0Under
2026-03-31vs DET1Over
2026-04-01vs DET1Over
2026-04-01vs DET0Under
2026-04-03vs ATL1Over
2026-06-12vs CIN1Over
2026-06-14vs CIN0Under
2026-06-16vs LAA0Under
2026-06-17vs LAA0Under
2026-06-17vs LAA2Over
2026-06-20vs MIN0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jordan Lawlar’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.