1B · TB
Jonathan Aranda — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) has averaged 0.98 hits per game across 59 games this season, and the last 10 have been hotter at 1.2. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 63% of games this season. Our model projects 1.02, a step above the market line of 0.7.
Next: @ MIA — their staff ranks 19 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
Under 0.5 +177 at DraftKings — model 35% to hit, -3.0% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Jonathan Aranda went over in 37 of 59 2026 games.
Our projection 1.02 vs market line 0.7 — edge +0.32.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 37/59 | 63% |
| 1.5 | 16/59 | 27% |
| 2.5 | 4/59 | 7% |
Share of 2026 games Aranda finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 7 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs STL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-29 | vs STL | 3 | Over |
| 2026-03-30 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-05 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CHC | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs CHC | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-15 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-16 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs PIT | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs MIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-27 | vs CLE | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs CLE | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs SF | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-04 | vs TOR | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-05 | vs TOR | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs BOS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs BOS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-11 | vs TOR | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-12 | vs TOR | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-13 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-15 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-22 | vs NYY | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs NYY | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-25 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs BAL | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs LAA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-01 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jonathan Aranda’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.