EdgeTake

LF · CIN

JJ Bleday — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
64
Runs
32
Per Game
0.50
Projection
0.49
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

JJ Bleday (CIN) sits at 0.5 runs per game through 64 games, with the last 10 dipping to 0.3. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 38% of games this season. We project 0.49, about even with the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: @ STL — their staff ranks 14 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Dustin May (RHP)

vs LHP
.222
.765 OPS · 5 HR · 84 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.242
.845 OPS · 12 HR · 224 PA

Career vs Dustin May: 0-for-3 (.000 AVG) over 5 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +120 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -155 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), JJ Bleday went over in 24 of 64 2026 games.

Our projection 0.49 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.01.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.524/6438%
1.57/6411%

Share of 2026 games Bleday finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.30
Season avg
0.50

Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (32)
0.44
Away (32)
0.56
Home edge
-0.13

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-04-26vs DET1Over
2026-04-29vs COL0Under
2026-04-30vs COL0Under
2026-05-01vs PIT0Under
2026-05-02vs PIT3Over
2026-05-03vs PIT0Under
2026-05-04vs CHC1Over
2026-05-05vs CHC1Over
2026-05-06vs CHC0Under
2026-05-07vs CHC0Under
2026-05-08vs HOU0Under
2026-05-09vs HOU0Under
2026-05-10vs HOU1Over
2026-05-12vs WSH0Under
2026-05-13vs WSH1Over
2026-05-14vs WSH2Over
2026-05-15vs CLE2Over
2026-05-16vs CLE0Under
2026-05-17vs CLE0Under
2026-05-18vs PHI0Under
2026-05-19vs PHI0Under
2026-05-20vs PHI2Over
2026-05-22vs STL0Under
2026-05-23vs STL0Under
2026-05-25vs NYM1Over
2026-05-26vs NYM1Over
2026-05-27vs NYM0Under
2026-05-29vs ATL1Over
2026-05-30vs ATL1Over
2026-05-31vs ATL0Under
2026-06-01vs KC1Over
2026-06-02vs KC0Under
2026-06-03vs KC0Under
2026-06-06vs STL0Under
2026-06-06vs STL0Under
2026-06-07vs STL0Under
2026-06-09vs SD1Over
2026-06-10vs SD1Over
2026-06-10vs SD2Over
2026-06-12vs AZ0Under
2026-06-13vs AZ0Under
2026-06-14vs AZ1Over
2026-06-15vs NYM2Over
2026-06-16vs NYM1Over
2026-06-17vs NYM0Under
2026-06-19vs NYY0Under
2026-06-20vs NYY1Over
2026-06-21vs NYY0Under
2026-06-22vs MIL0Under
2026-06-23vs MIL0Under
2026-06-24vs MIL0Under
2026-06-26vs PIT0Under
2026-06-27vs PIT1Over
2026-06-28vs PIT0Under
2026-06-29vs MIL0Under
2026-06-30vs MIL0Under
2026-07-02vs MIL0Under
2026-07-02vs MIL1Over
2026-07-03vs BAL0Under
2026-07-04vs BAL0Under
2026-07-05vs BAL0Under
2026-07-07vs PHI0Under
2026-07-08vs PHI2Over
2026-07-09vs PHI0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See JJ Bleday’s full profile and methodology.