3B · MIA
Graham Pauley — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 33 games this season, Graham Pauley (MIA) is averaging 0.03 home runs per game, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 3% of games this season. Our projection of 0.07 comes in under the market line of 0.9.
Next: vs SD — their staff ranks 13 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
Probable starter: JP Sears (LHP)
Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Graham Pauley went over in 1 of 33 2026 games.
Our projection 0.07 vs market line 0.9 — edge -0.83.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1/33 | 3% |
Share of 2026 games Pauley finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-09 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-13 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-27 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-28 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Graham Pauley’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.