RF · PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) sits at 0.96 hits per game through 25 games, and the last 10 have been hotter at 1.3. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 60% of games this season. We project 1.12, ahead of the 0.53 market line.
Next: vs CHC — their staff ranks 19 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
Probable starter: Shota Imanaga (LHP)
Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.
Over 0.5 -165 at BetMGM — model 63% to hit, +1.6% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Esmerlyn Valdez went over in 15 of 25 2026 games.
Our projection 1.12 vs market line 0.53 — edge +0.59.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 15/25 | 60% |
| 1.5 | 7/25 | 28% |
| 2.5 | 2/25 | 8% |
Share of 2026 games Valdez finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 8 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-11 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-12 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-16 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-18 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-20 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-24 | vs SEA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-25 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-26 | vs CIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-27 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-28 | vs CIN | 3 | Over |
| 2026-06-29 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-30 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-07-01 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-07-02 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-07-03 | vs WSH | 3 | Over |
| 2026-07-04 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-07-05 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-07 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-07-08 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-07-09 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Esmerlyn Valdez’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.