EdgeTake

2B · CIN

Edwin Arroyo — Hits

2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
27
Hits
21
Per Game
0.78
Projection
0.81
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Edwin Arroyo (CIN) has averaged 0.78 hits per game across 27 games this season, tracking close to that at 0.8 over the last 10. 59% of those games have finished over 0.5. We project 0.81, ahead of the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ STL — their staff ranks 14 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Andre Pallante (RHP)

vs LHP
.300
.690 OPS · 0 HR · 31 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.239
.563 OPS · 0 HR · 97 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books

Under 0.5 +125 at BetMGM — model 43% to hit, -2.4% EV.

Over 0.5 -155 BetRiversUnder 0.5 +125 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Edwin Arroyo went over in 16 of 27 2026 games.

Our projection 0.81 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.31.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.516/2759%
1.53/2711%
2.51/274%

Share of 2026 games Arroyo finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.80
Season avg
0.78

Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (14)
0.50
Away (13)
1.08
Home edge
-0.58

Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Hits

DateOppHitsvs Line
2026-06-01vs KC1Over
2026-06-02vs KC0Under
2026-06-03vs KC0Under
2026-06-06vs STL1Over
2026-06-07vs STL1Over
2026-06-09vs SD1Over
2026-06-10vs SD1Over
2026-06-13vs AZ1Over
2026-06-14vs AZ0Under
2026-06-15vs NYM1Over
2026-06-16vs NYM1Over
2026-06-17vs NYM0Under
2026-06-19vs NYY0Under
2026-06-20vs NYY4Over
2026-06-21vs NYY0Under
2026-06-23vs MIL0Under
2026-06-24vs MIL1Over
2026-06-27vs PIT2Over
2026-06-28vs PIT2Over
2026-06-29vs MIL1Over
2026-06-30vs MIL0Under
2026-07-02vs MIL1Over
2026-07-02vs MIL0Under
2026-07-03vs BAL0Under
2026-07-05vs BAL1Over
2026-07-08vs PHI1Over
2026-07-09vs PHI0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Edwin Arroyo’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.