EdgeTake

3B · LAA

Denzer Guzman — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
11
Runs
5
Per Game
0.45
Projection
0.46
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Denzer Guzman (LAA) has averaged 0.45 runs per game across 11 games this season, trending up to 0.5 across the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 36% of games this season. Our projection of 0.46 comes in under the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: vs BAL — their staff ranks 23 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Kyle Bradish (RHP)

vs LHP
.231
1.102 OPS · 2 HR · 15 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.286
.724 OPS · 1 HR · 37 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +155 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -190 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Denzer Guzman went over in 4 of 11 2026 games.

Our projection 0.46 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.04.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.54/1136%
1.51/119%

Share of 2026 games Guzman finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.50
Season avg
0.45

Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (5)
0.20
Away (6)
0.67
Home edge
-0.47

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-06-09vs HOU0Under
2026-06-10vs HOU0Under
2026-06-13vs TB0Under
2026-06-14vs TB1Over
2026-06-14vs TB0Under
2026-06-16vs AZ0Under
2026-06-17vs AZ2Over
2026-06-17vs AZ0Under
2026-06-19vs ATH0Under
2026-06-20vs ATH1Over
2026-06-21vs ATH1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Denzer Guzman’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.