EdgeTake

3B · LAA

Denzer Guzman — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
11
Home Runs
2
Per Game
0.18
Projection
0.14
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Over 11 games this season, Denzer Guzman (LAA) is averaging 0.18 home runs per game, with recent form ahead of that at 0.2 over the last 10. The over on 1.5 has hit in 0% of games. We project 0.14, short of the 1.09 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs BAL — their staff ranks 23 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Kyle Bradish (RHP)

vs LHP
.231
1.102 OPS · 2 HR · 15 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.286
.724 OPS · 1 HR · 37 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +500 Caesars

At a line of 1.5 (betrivers), Denzer Guzman went over in 0 of 11 2026 games.

Our projection 0.14 vs market line 1.09 — edge -0.95.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.52/1118%

Share of 2026 games Guzman finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.20
Season avg
0.18

Over 1.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (5)
0.00
Away (6)
0.33
Home edge
-0.33

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-06-09vs HOU0Under
2026-06-10vs HOU0Under
2026-06-13vs TB0Under
2026-06-14vs TB0Under
2026-06-14vs TB0Under
2026-06-16vs AZ0Under
2026-06-17vs AZ0Under
2026-06-17vs AZ0Under
2026-06-19vs ATH0Under
2026-06-20vs ATH1Under
2026-06-21vs ATH1Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Denzer Guzman’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.