RF · SEA
Connor Joe — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Connor Joe (SEA) sits at 0.06 home runs per game through 18 games, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 6% of games. Our model projects 0.09, below the market line of 0.9.
Next: @ TEX — their staff ranks 11 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
Probable starter: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP)
Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Connor Joe went over in 1 of 18 2026 games.
Our projection 0.09 vs market line 0.9 — edge -0.81.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1/18 | 6% |
Share of 2026 games Joe finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-18 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-21 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Connor Joe’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.