EdgeTake

DH · SF

Casey Schmitt — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
55
Home Runs
13
Per Game
0.24
Projection
0.16
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Casey Schmitt (SF) has averaged 0.24 home runs per game across 55 games this season, with the last 10 dipping to 0.2. The over on 0.5 has hit in 22% of games. Our model projects 0.16, below the market line of 1.13.

Next matchup

Next: @ CHC — their staff ranks 17 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +280 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (betonlineag), Casey Schmitt went over in 12 of 55 2026 games.

Our projection 0.16 vs market line 1.13 — edge -0.97.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.512/5522%

Share of 2026 games Schmitt finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.20
Season avg
0.24

Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (21)
0.33
Away (34)
0.18
Home edge
+0.16

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs NYY0Under
2026-03-27vs NYY0Under
2026-03-28vs NYY0Under
2026-03-31vs SD0Under
2026-04-01vs SD0Under
2026-04-01vs SD0Under
2026-04-03vs NYM0Under
2026-04-08vs PHI0Under
2026-04-10vs BAL0Under
2026-04-11vs BAL0Under
2026-04-12vs BAL1Over
2026-04-14vs CIN0Under
2026-04-15vs CIN0Under
2026-04-16vs CIN0Under
2026-04-17vs WSH1Over
2026-04-18vs WSH0Under
2026-04-19vs WSH0Under
2026-04-22vs LAD0Under
2026-04-23vs LAD0Under
2026-04-25vs MIA0Under
2026-04-25vs MIA1Over
2026-04-26vs MIA1Over
2026-04-28vs PHI0Under
2026-04-29vs PHI0Under
2026-04-30vs PHI0Under
2026-05-01vs TB0Under
2026-05-02vs TB0Under
2026-05-03vs TB0Under
2026-05-05vs SD1Over
2026-05-06vs SD1Over
2026-05-06vs SD0Under
2026-05-09vs PIT0Under
2026-05-10vs PIT0Under
2026-05-12vs LAD0Under
2026-05-13vs LAD0Under
2026-05-15vs LAD0Under
2026-05-16vs ATH0Under
2026-05-17vs ATH2Over
2026-05-17vs ATH0Under
2026-05-19vs AZ0Under
2026-05-20vs AZ0Under
2026-05-20vs AZ1Over
2026-05-23vs CWS0Under
2026-05-23vs CWS1Over
2026-05-24vs CWS1Over
2026-05-25vs AZ0Under
2026-05-27vs AZ1Over
2026-05-27vs AZ0Under
2026-05-30vs COL0Under
2026-05-31vs COL0Under
2026-05-31vs COL0Under
2026-06-01vs MIL0Under
2026-06-02vs MIL0Under
2026-06-03vs MIL0Under
2026-06-04vs MIL1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Casey Schmitt’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.