EdgeTake

C · KC

Carter Jensen — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
85
Total Bases
130
Per Game
1.53
Projection
1.98
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Carter Jensen (KC) has averaged 1.53 total bases per game across 85 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 1.8 over the last 10. They've gone over 1.5 in 36% of those games. Our model projects 1.98, a step above the market line of 1.34.

Next matchup

Next: @ DET — their staff ranks 6 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Troy Melton (RHP)

vs LHP
.284
.762 OPS · 2 HR · 94 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.224
.734 OPS · 12 HR · 279 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books

Under 1.5 -139 at Caesars — model 56% to hit, -4.2% EV.

Over 1.5 +111 DraftKingsUnder 1.5 -139 Caesars

At a line of 1.5 (betonlineag), Carter Jensen went over in 31 of 85 2026 games.

Our projection 1.98 vs market line 1.34 — edge +0.64.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.553/8562%
1.531/8536%
2.520/8524%
3.516/8519%

Share of 2026 games Jensen finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
1.80
Season avg
1.53

Over 1.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (42)
1.50
Away (43)
1.56
Home edge
-0.06

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-03-27vs ATL0Under
2026-03-28vs ATL0Under
2026-03-29vs ATL4Over
2026-03-30vs MIN0Under
2026-04-01vs MIN1Under
2026-04-03vs MIL3Over
2026-04-04vs MIL0Under
2026-04-06vs CLE5Over
2026-04-07vs CLE4Over
2026-04-08vs CLE0Under
2026-04-09vs CWS0Under
2026-04-10vs CWS4Over
2026-04-11vs CWS0Under
2026-04-12vs CWS2Over
2026-04-14vs DET0Under
2026-04-15vs DET0Under
2026-04-16vs DET2Over
2026-04-17vs NYY0Under
2026-04-18vs NYY5Over
2026-04-20vs BAL1Under
2026-04-21vs BAL3Over
2026-04-22vs BAL5Over
2026-04-24vs LAA2Over
2026-04-25vs LAA1Under
2026-04-26vs LAA0Under
2026-04-29vs ATH0Under
2026-04-30vs ATH1Under
2026-04-30vs ATH0Under
2026-05-02vs SEA0Under
2026-05-03vs SEA0Under
2026-05-03vs SEA0Under
2026-05-04vs CLE1Under
2026-05-05vs CLE0Under
2026-05-07vs CLE1Under
2026-05-08vs DET0Under
2026-05-09vs DET2Over
2026-05-10vs DET0Under
2026-05-12vs CWS1Under
2026-05-13vs CWS3Over
2026-05-16vs STL3Over
2026-05-16vs STL0Under
2026-05-17vs STL1Under
2026-05-18vs BOS0Under
2026-05-19vs BOS2Over
2026-05-20vs BOS0Under
2026-05-22vs SEA0Under
2026-05-23vs SEA1Under
2026-05-24vs SEA2Over
2026-05-25vs NYY0Under
2026-05-26vs NYY2Over
2026-05-27vs NYY0Under
2026-05-30vs TEX5Over
2026-05-31vs TEX1Under
2026-06-01vs CIN0Under
2026-06-02vs CIN0Under
2026-06-03vs CIN0Under
2026-06-04vs MIN2Over
2026-06-06vs MIN0Under
2026-06-06vs MIN4Over
2026-06-07vs MIN1Under
2026-06-09vs TEX2Over
2026-06-11vs TEX2Over
2026-06-13vs HOU1Under
2026-06-13vs HOU4Over
2026-06-14vs HOU1Under
2026-06-15vs WSH1Under
2026-06-17vs WSH8Over
2026-06-18vs STL4Over
2026-06-20vs STL1Under
2026-06-21vs STL5Over
2026-06-22vs TB1Under
2026-06-23vs TB1Under
2026-06-24vs TB1Under
2026-06-25vs TB4Over
2026-06-26vs CWS1Under
2026-06-27vs CWS1Under
2026-06-28vs CWS4Over
2026-06-30vs TB4Over
2026-07-01vs TB0Under
2026-07-02vs TB5Over
2026-07-05vs PHI0Under
2026-07-05vs PHI1Under
2026-07-07vs NYM1Under
2026-07-08vs NYM2Over
2026-07-09vs NYM0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Carter Jensen’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.