EdgeTake

SS · HOU

Braden Shewmake — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
27
Runs
10
Per Game
0.37
Projection
0.45
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Braden Shewmake (HOU) sits at 0.37 runs per game through 27 games, tracking close to that at 0.4 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 33% of games. We project 0.45, short of the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ CWS — their staff ranks 15 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Sean Burke (RHP)

vs LHP
.111
.311 OPS · 0 HR · 11 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.333
.786 OPS · 0 HR · 7 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +190 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -275 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Braden Shewmake went over in 9 of 27 2026 games.

Our projection 0.45 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.05.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.59/2733%
1.51/274%

Share of 2026 games Shewmake finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.40
Season avg
0.37

Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (13)
0.31
Away (14)
0.43
Home edge
-0.12

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-04-25vs NYY1Over
2026-04-26vs NYY0Under
2026-04-29vs BAL1Over
2026-05-03vs BOS1Over
2026-05-06vs LAD1Over
2026-05-06vs LAD0Under
2026-05-08vs CIN0Under
2026-05-09vs CIN1Over
2026-05-12vs SEA0Under
2026-05-13vs SEA0Under
2026-05-14vs SEA1Over
2026-05-14vs SEA0Under
2026-05-16vs TEX0Under
2026-05-16vs TEX0Under
2026-05-17vs TEX0Under
2026-05-18vs MIN0Under
2026-05-19vs MIN0Under
2026-05-22vs CHC1Over
2026-05-23vs CHC0Under
2026-05-24vs CHC0Under
2026-05-25vs TEX0Under
2026-05-27vs TEX0Under
2026-05-28vs TEX0Under
2026-05-29vs TEX0Under
2026-05-30vs MIL1Over
2026-05-30vs MIL0Under
2026-07-06vs WSH2Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Braden Shewmake’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.